Just four days after withdrawing from the agreement on exports of Ukrainian agricultural goods, Russia resumed cooperation. The Kremlin justifies the about-face with Ukrainian security guarantees. That’s not a sign of strength.
Freighters carrying Ukrainian grain are awaiting inspection off Istanbul at the end of October. Ships have been backed up on the Bosphorus in recent weeks as Russia delayed inspections.
Anyone who takes back decisions made after a short time does not convey a picture of strength. Just four days after Moscow announced that it was withdrawing from the so-called grain agreement, it rejoined it.
The Russian Defense Ministry in Moscow said on Wednesday that Ukraine, mediated by the United Nations and Turkey, had given a written undertaking not to use the ports and shipping routes intended for grain exports for military attacks against Russia. Moscow considers these guarantees to be sufficient and is therefore participating in the agreement again. As a result, the safe export of grain and other agricultural goods from Ukraine is again guaranteed for the time being.
Russia demands security guarantees
The surprising turnaround was greeted with relief around the world. After Russia’s announcement on Saturday sent world grain prices soaring, they fell again following Wednesday’s announcement. Under the agreement are since August more than 9.5 million tons of agricultural goods exported from Ukraine. Ukraine is one of the main exporters of wheat and other grains.
With the security guarantees demanded, Russia is sticking to its claim that Ukraine misused the agreement for military purposes. Russia justified the suspension on Saturday with a Ukrainian attack on ships of the Black Sea Fleet in the Sevastopol naval base.
The explosion on the Kerch Bridge three weeks ago, which connects the Russian mainland with the annexed peninsula of Crimea, had already brought President Vladimir Putin into connection with the shipping corridor in the west of the Black Sea. Kyiv has always denied these allegations.
What did Erdogan and Putin discuss?
Despite the explanations put forward, the question remains as to what actually prompted Moscow to make this embarrassing about-face. The security issues had always been just a pretext behind which Russia hid its general rejection of the agreement. In the Kremlin, the view prevails that the July agreement gives Ukraine too many advantages, while Russia itself hardly benefits from it.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has played a key role in negotiations over the past few days and has once again strengthened his position as a key mediator in this war. What he discussed on the phone with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday is not known in detail. However, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu then pointed out Russia’s difficulties in exporting its own agricultural products, for example because the ships were not given permission to land or could not be insured.
It cannot be ruled out that Turkey has offered Russia a concession on these issues. The Kremlin has long been demanding easier exports of its own agricultural goods. As a symbolic gesture, the first ships to leave Ukrainian ports on Wednesday were heading for African countries. Russia has always complained that only a fraction of the deliveries are destined for the poorest countries that are most affected by the high grain prices.
The blackmail attempt came to nothing
What really made the difference, however, is that Russia misjudged the consequences of its exit. The UN and Turkey, which serve as protecting powers of the agreement, were clearly unimpressed on Monday. They announced that they wanted to stick to the agreement even without Moscow’s involvement. They gave the go-ahead to 16 cargo ships on Monday, and four more followed on Tuesday – despite Russia’s threat that it could no longer guarantee the safety of the corridor.
In this situation, the next step in Putin’s escalation logic would actually have been an attack on a cargo ship or some other disruptive maneuver. The Russian President is apparently not ready for this at the moment. In fact, it would remove the last remaining doubt as to who is actually endangering the world’s food supply. However, the Russian Navy may not even be able to launch an effective strike in the west of the Black Sea. In any case, the blackmail attempt came to nothing.
However, the danger for the grain agreement has not been averted. Moscow has made it clear that any future Ukrainian attack on the Russian Navy will endanger the transport corridor. In addition, the agreement expires in two weeks and must be renegotiated.