The totality of the Western sanctions adopted in response to the war in Ukraine is still not known, their effect still difficult to measure, that already a question arises: could the famous Russian resilience be undermined? No panic is manifested in the country, but an obvious feverishness. Its first symptom: the long queues in front of sometimes dry ticket machines.
During the weekend, the Russians turned to foreign currency, a guarantee of security; on Monday, many distributors were giving only limited sums even when it came to rubles. In 2014, after the first sanctions imposed already for the war in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, no such movement had been observed. The anticipated shock could rather be similar to that of 1998, a financial crisis whose trauma remained in Russia.
There is another indicator which the Russians, almost instinctively, know how to watch for upheavals. That of the exchange rates of the dollar and the euro, which are displayed in luminous characters in the streets, on the windows of the exchange offices. The figure of 100 rubles to the dollar had never been exceeded in history; on Monday February 28 it rose to 109 rubles, and the euro to 127 rubles.
Prices that change several times a day
In a country where 43% of the population say they have no savings, the effect can be devastating, even though the prices of basic necessities have already soared over the past year and the standard of living has fallen in continuous since 2013. The prices of electronic goods or cars have already soared. From February 25, the Russians had rushed into electronics stores in anticipation of the crisis. Then, we saw sellers changing prices several times a day.
The concern is still contained, in front of a distributor of the Raiffeisen bank in the center of Moscow. The bank is not among those who should be targeted by the exclusion from the Swift communications system, but as Pavel P. says, “We have experienced too many shocks not to be a little cautious”. The machine refuses to give more than 10,000 rubles (about 85 euros). “We know that the West imposes sanctions on us for everything and anything”specifies this man of about fifty years.
This is precisely the television line, which massively seized on the subject of sanctions to denounce a new attack from the West. “It is not the oligarchs who are targeted but the peopledenounced Sunday evening the star presenter Vladimir Solovyov. Only for what we are, for our Russian names. » The link with the war in Ukraine, made almost invisible in the media, is not made.
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