The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is getting bigger and bigger. Russia sees opportunities in this and is hoping for encouragement from the West. However, the Ukraine war shows dividing lines.
Heads of state and government from Turkmenistan to Belarus in a tourist complex in Samarkand, which is based on traditional architecture. Center right: Russia’s President Putin, to his left is the host, Shawkat Mirsijoyev.
In the group photo in front of a recreated “historical” backdrop in Samarkand, the presidents of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan stood as far apart as possible. When chatting in the evening with vodka, sparkling wine, juice or water on sofas around a coffee table, they sat at a suitable distance from each other: the Kyrgyz Sadyr Schaparov and his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rakhmon walked on the opening night of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO ) in Uzbekistan visible at a distance. Because at the same time, soldiers and border guards from the two neighboring countries shot at each other.
Dead and injured are to be lamented in a decades-old border dispute, which breaks out again and again because of the confusing course of the border in the Fergana Valley. In a bilateral meeting on Friday, the two heads of state agreed to end the fighting and to set up a commission between the two secret services to investigate the causes. The renewed outbreak of the conflict over nested settlement areas and scarce water and land resources highlighted the impotence of the SCO, which advocates stability and cooperation in the complex greater region.
The bilateral contacts in the foreground
As recently described by Tim Rühlig of the German Society for Foreign Relations, the organization is more of a platform for many bilateral meetings than a true multilateral forum. In Samarkand, too, almost more attention was therefore paid to the encounters on the edge of the actual summit. The “alliance of autocrats” that researchers speak of is expanding, is the largest regional political grouping in the world and now comprises more than half of the world’s population, as Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized.
In Samarkand, Iran definitely joined, Belarus is about to become a member. A number of Asian and Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates and Myanmar, want to join as “dialogue partners”; Turkey also belongs to the latter. This expansion and the participation of countries that are so unfriendly to one another, such as India and Pakistan, limit the organization’s ability to act from the outset.
The fact that China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping dedicated his first trip abroad since the outbreak of the pandemic to the SCO only partially shows its importance for Beijing; Xi also wanted the opportunity to pay his respects to Central Asia. For Russia, on the other hand, such organizations are becoming increasingly important the more the ties with the West are disrupted. For most SCO members, Russia is an attractive political and economic partner. What they also have in common with Iran is that they are under far-reaching Western sanctions.
Russia’s war is causing concern
It is important for Russia to portray the organization as an assembly of states that disagree with a Western-style world order. The aspiration and reality of what they have to oppose this order, however, diverge widely. Russia’s war against Ukraine and the shockwaves it has sent through Central Asia are the most glaring example of this. For Putin, however, the most recent global political developments are an expression of an irreversible shift in the balance of power.
But even Russia’s presence in the region is suffering from the war: For the second time, the Russian army has moved units from its large military base in Tajikistan to the Ukrainian combat zone. Tajik President Rahmon recalled the threat emanating from Afghanistan.
The Ukraine war rubs off on the meeting in Samarkand. Russia cannot be sure that it will find itself in a circle of completely like-minded people. In the meeting with Xi, Putin himself mentioned China’s concerns in this regard, which are repeatedly raised with Russia. Indian Prime Minister Modi bluntly said at his meeting with Putin that now is not the time to wage wars. The latter responded that he understood the concern and claimed that Russia was doing everything possible to end the conflict as soon as possible. But the Ukrainians preferred to fight on rather than seek a peaceful solution.
The SCO members are not opposed to Russia and undoubtedly take a very critical view of the Western role in Ukraine. But they prefer, under the guise of a tackling position, to extract benefits for themselves – such as cheap prices for oil and natural gas that Russia can no longer sell to Europe.