Russia is tightening the noose, as new images show

What military experts had feared for a long time happened over the weekend: Russia has apparently begun to clear its large base near Yelnya, 250 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, and to move troops from there to the immediate vicinity of the border. The Kremlin is thus creating another prerequisite for launching an attack on Ukraine in the near future, should President Putin issue this order.

To understand the significance of this move, one has to go back to the beginning of the current crisis. On November 1, satellite images provided alarming evidence of a Russian troop deployment for the first time. They showed a huge military camp near Yelnya, which had recently been erected in an open field. They were tanks and artillery pieces from the 41st Army, which had not returned to their barracks in Siberia after a military exercise.

However, this war machine did not pose an immediate threat to Ukraine for two reasons: the distance to the border was considerable and, according to the satellite images, there was only a minimum of personnel at the base. But both are now changing dramatically.

Reinforcements by plane from Siberia

Videos shared on social media on Friday and Saturday leave little doubt that tanks and artillery will be moved from Elnya to the Novozybkov region – less than 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. That distance is already within range of some of these weapon systems.

At the same time, flight radar data showed at least ten on Saturday alone Military transport flights of the type Il-76 from Siberia to the west. This proves the pessimists among the observers right, who had warned that Yelnya was probably only a base for the temporary stationing of weapons and that the Russian army command could fly in the necessary personnel in a flash in a last phase of war preparations.

It should be emphasized that Russia’s behavior, even without an attack on Ukraine, constitutes a serious violation of the European security order. Moscow has not provided any plausible justification for such a threatening movement of troops. The confidence-building measures agreed after the end of the Cold War, namely transparency in military exercises, are constantly ignored.

For example, Latvia had recently requested an inspection of military facilities in the Frontier Province, where Novozybkov is located. The Baltic country did so by citing the Organization’s so-called Vienna Document on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which Moscow has also pledged to uphold. But the planned inspection was canceled at short notice two weeks ago under a flimsy pretext – the corona pandemic.

In view of the secrecy of the Russian authorities, findings from publicly accessible sources – so-called Osint (open-source intelligence) – play a central role in assessing the situation. At the end of January, research by the NZZ on the basis of videos by Belarusian private individuals, among other things, provided clear indications that the Russian armed forces had set up several camps in south-eastern Belarus near the Ukrainian border. There has been clear evidence of this since Saturday evening: the private satellite operator Maxar published recordings of bases at two of the suspected locations.

One is located south of the city of Rechiza on the edge of a forest area, 50 kilometers as the crow flies from Ukraine. In addition to tanks, artillery and trucks, it also includes dozens of large troop tents. Almost at the same time, in a rather strange way, there was an indirect confirmation from an official source: the local authorities of Retschiza organized on Saturday under the keyword “Two States, One People, One History”. a folk festival, where local residents were allowed to visit the field camp and children could climb around on tanks. Apparently, the authorities were responding to concerns among sections of the population about the sudden presence of foreign troops.

The second base documented by satellite images is located just 30 kilometers from the Ukrainian border north of the city of Elsk. It was also built on a green field, so to speak. The satellite images indicate the presence of missile launch pads.

The field camp, like that near Rechiza, is far from the officially declared locations of the ongoing Belarusian-Russian military exercise; this obviously offers only a cover for the intention to deploy troops against the Ukraine at strategically important places.

However, there are other bases similarly close to the Ukrainian border, for which there are only indications, but no high-resolution satellite images so far. Nevertheless, it can be assumed that, for example, the Belarusian air force base Pribytki has been converted into a camp for the Russian airborne troops, including numerous armored vehicles. In addition, Russia appears to have massively expanded its military presence farther south-east at its Zoloti base, 35 kilometers from the border.

US warnings are becoming more urgent

These individual observations add up to the picture that the noose is tightening around Ukraine: Russian troops are being moved from more distant bases to locations closer to the border, from where they could attack relatively quickly. This also leaves the latest Assessment of the American secret services appear justified. As leaked in Washington on Saturday, the services assume that Russia is now working on the final preparations for a possible invasion.

The American assessment leaves open whether the order for an attack was actually given. Should it come to that, however, tens of thousands of deaths are to be expected. In one scenario highlighted by the intelligence services, a lightning attack would be launched on the capital, Kiev, with the goal of checkmating the government there. The Americans speak of a rapid encirclement and a fall of the three million city within a few days.

Such a public warning should not please the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky. So far she had been demonstratively calm and called on the population to calm down. Panic and a collapse in Ukraine’s economy would be a great success for the Kremlin without having to send a single soldier across the border.

Going about your usual life is becoming increasingly difficult in view of the threatening backdrop. According to the United States, Russia has now stationed 83 so-called tactical battalion groups near the border, and 14 more are on the way. The total number of 97 battalion groups means that 60 percent of all Russian combat troops are now focused on the Ukraine theater. In a massive mobilization, the Kremlin brought in almost everything it could use to intimidate the neighboring country, including ground troops and strong contingents of the air force and the navy.