While the Russian army announced Friday that it was going to limit its offensive on eastern Ukraine, is this a new strategy on the part of Vladimir Putin or the beginning of an admission of impotence? guest ofEurope noon weekend, General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, gave some answers. “The Russian army realizes the limit of its commitment and focuses on the objectives it is capable of achieving,” he assured Thierry Dagiral’s microphone.
Mariupol, a key issue for Putin
On the other hand, “the speech vis-à-vis the Russians is to show that the operation went well and that it is a Russian victory”. For the general, with this communication, “it is a question of addressing the Russian population with the propaganda that it receives”. Since the start of the conflict on February 24, “he has been told that it is an operation in the Donbass; so there is continuity to achieve the Russian objectives”.
According to General Trinquand, if the army makes this announcement, rather the Russian president, it is because the latter reserves the right “to intervene when we get to the negotiations and that he can really announce that he won”. And to recall that “Marioupol is a key point: it is a question of conquering it to have at least one city and then be able to enter into negotiations”.
Isolated Russia?
In this conflict, is Vladimir Putin in danger of coming out of this war completely isolated? “We must be wary of the isolation we see from our western prism,” warns the general. “In the world, he is not isolated.” According to the general, “when you talk about it in Africa, the Middle East or Asia, you are surprised to see people who, on the whole, rather accuse the Americans of having laid a trap”.
“On the other hand,” he continues. “Economically, he is definitely in an extremely difficult situation.” With his population in particular, “he will have to get out of this affair by showing the Russian people that, finally, he has achieved his objectives”. But on the Western side, “negotiation will be extremely difficult”, after what civilians have experienced in Ukraine.