The Russian authorities say it, repeat it: Moscow has ” nothing to see “ with the crisis taking place at the border between Belarus and Poland, where thousands of migrants have been flocking for several days. The European Union (EU) accuses Minsk of having organized these migratory movements in retaliation Western sanctions imposed in the regime of Alexander Lukashenko since 2020 and the highly contested presidential election. She decided on new retaliatory measures on Monday, November 15.
Behind the Belarusian leader hangs the shadow of his powerful ally, Russia, whom Poland has accused of being the ” brain “ of the current conflict. While other EU members have not identified Moscow as responsible, several of them, including France, have called on him to “Mobilize its close ties with Belarus” to put an end to what Brussels denounces as a “Instrumentalization” migratory flows. Russia, she gave her support to her ally, saying that “To place all the responsibility on Lukashenko, on the Belarusian side, [est] absolutely wrong ”.
For Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, researcher at the French Institute of Geopolitics (Paris-VIII Vincennes-Saint-Denis) and author of World seen from Moscow: geopolitics of Russia and post-Soviet Eurasia (Paris, PUF, 2020), Russia seeks, in this crisis, to “To be the” boss “of the area” all in “Work[ant] on fault lines in Europe ”.
Warsaw accused Moscow of being “the mastermind” of the ongoing crisis on the border between Poland and Belarus. What is this accusation based on? Do we have elements that allow it to be supported?
We do not have written evidence, nor access to conversations between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, but no one in Europe is under any illusions about Russia’s role in this crisis. Only those who want to be abused are abused.
In recent months, Russia has tightened its control over the former Soviet republic and Alexander Lukashenko, who is not much without the support of Vladimir Putin, has only limited room for action. The air transport to Belarus of candidates for emigration to Europe could not escape Moscow. At the very least, Vladimir Putin lets the Belarusian leader do so in order to put pressure on Poland, and more widely on Europe.
Russia shows its support for its ally, has carried out military exercises with Minsk, but at the same time has brushed aside Lukashenko’s threat to halt Russian gas supplies in transit through Belarus to the EU. What role does Russia intend to play in this crisis?
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