Saudi Arabia is emerging as an influential mediator in global diplomacy, hosting a crucial meeting with U.S. and Russian officials to improve bilateral ties, separate from the Ukraine conflict. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is pursuing a strategy of regional appeasement, having previously facilitated prisoner exchanges and hosted key diplomatic discussions. Meanwhile, European nations find themselves sidelined in this evolving geopolitical landscape, highlighting a shift in power dynamics that diminishes their role in negotiations concerning Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia’s Role in Global Diplomacy
All eyes are currently focused on Saudi Arabia as it hosts a significant diplomatic meeting in Riyadh. On the morning of February 18, high-ranking officials from the United States, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, gathered at the Ritz-Carlton with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic advisor, Yuri Ushakov. This meeting is pivotal for both the Kremlin and the White House as they strive to mend bilateral relations. However, it is not aimed at addressing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to U.S. officials, who view it as a continuation of discussions between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Shortly after this meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to arrive in Saudi Arabia, highlighting the kingdom’s growing role in international diplomacy. King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and his son, Mohammed bin Salman, aspire to act as mediators among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine, positioning themselves as key players on the global stage, as noted by Middle East expert David Rigoulet-Roze from the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
Understanding the Strategic Intent Behind the Meeting
According to David Rigoulet-Roze, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has been working for the past few years to establish himself as a facilitator of negotiations, aiming to resolve various regional conflicts. This represents a significant shift from his earlier confrontational stance, particularly regarding Iran and Qatar. MBS is now championing a strategy of regional appeasement and aspires to mediate conflicts beyond the Middle East, including the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
His previous mediation efforts include the release of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine in September 2022 and hosting Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Arab League summit in May 2023. Notably, MBS also organized a meeting in August 2023 focused on Ukraine, inviting around forty countries to discuss peace plans without Russian participation. Zelensky is expected to return on February 27 to continue discussions on prisoner exchanges and potential negotiations regarding Ukraine’s peace proposals.
MBS’s ability to mediate stems from his close ties with both President Trump and President Putin, with whom he collaborates within the OPEC+ framework to manage global oil prices. This relationship underscores a realpolitik approach, allowing Saudi Arabia to emerge as a significant player on the world stage, particularly as it aims to diversify its strategic partnerships beyond the United States.
The Role of Europe in the Geopolitical Landscape
Despite the ongoing negotiations, European nations appear largely sidelined in this diplomatic process. They seem to be mere observers of a situation that is unfolding without their direct involvement. Although European leaders express a desire for inclusion in discussions concerning Ukraine, they find themselves in a position of relative powerlessness, as highlighted during the recent Security Conference in Munich.
The current geopolitical climate suggests a reconfiguration of global power dynamics, with emerging poles of influence that largely exclude European participation. This shift poses a challenge to the traditional unity of the so-called “Western world,” particularly as the rise of “illiberal democracies” indicates a departure from shared values.
As for the negotiations surrounding Ukraine, the prospect of a successful agreement remains uncertain. While an agreement may eventually be reached, the critical question revolves around the specific terms and conditions. The United States, under Donald Trump, and Russia, under Putin, are the dominant players, leaving Europe with little choice but to adapt to the newly established situation.
Moreover, the evolving stance of President Zelensky reveals the complexities of the negotiation process. Initially, he sought to broker a significant deal with the U.S. by offering concessions on Ukraine’s rare earth resources in exchange for enhanced security guarantees. However, recent remarks from U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth about the absence of American troops in Ukraine and the limitations on European NATO forces have dampened Zelensky’s hopes. Consequently, he has reaffirmed his commitment to national sovereignty, complicating the ongoing negotiations.