Dor nearly a year now, Ukraine and the West have been waiting for this abstract Russian people to openly rebel against their government. However, there is no major protest movement in Russia, even less mass uprising, not even a sign of unrest on the horizon – despite the examples of individual resistance shown by the numerous trials for anti-war statements and activities. In reality, the population’s support for the country’s leaders is ever more aggressive, while its indifference and adaptability are ever more striking.
As I study the reasons for these reactions, an old Soviet joke comes to mind. Communist Party General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev boasts to his American counterpart that the Soviet people will put up with anything and never rebel against communism. To support his point, he imposes a series of unpopular measures on the resigned mass, a series that culminates with this announcement: all will be hanged the next day. The crowd finally reacts and a timid voice asks: “Do you have to bring your own rope, or do the unions provide it? » This is the reaction of a significant proportion of the Russian population today. During the partial mobilization in the fall of 2022, which quickly turned out to be nothing more than a one-way ticket to the scaffold, the conscripts had to buy their own rope – in this case, vests flak and first aid kits – due to shortages in the army.
One would have thought that, in a modernized urban society which has not fought a war of this magnitude for many years and which, in three decades of a market economy, has acquired all the common consumer instincts, a brutal intervention of the state in the peaceful flow of modern life would have been bound to provoke mass protests. However, far from protesting, the Russian people are adapting to their new existence.
False sense of duty
Emigration can be seen as a form of protest: people vote with their feet against the regime. But it is also a form of adaptation. If they cannot change anything, they opt for opportunistic pragmatic strategies.
According to polls, Russia’s actions in Ukraine cause shock, horror, fear and anxiety among more than 40% of Russians. Yet, while the cumulative level of depression and fear has only increased since the start of the “special operation”, it has not reached that of the mid-1990s or the financial crisis of 1998, For example. Judging by these indicators, the real shock is not so much the “special operation” as the partial mobilization: during this period (September 2022), 47% of respondents said they experienced negative emotions, compared to 32% in March. Then, as soon as it seemed to the majority of Russians that the threat of mobilization had passed, these negative emotions, without however completely disappearing, stabilized at tolerable levels. And the impression that the Russians have to provide their own rope has only a minimal impact on their support for the government.
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