Luis Martinez is a research director at Sciences Po-CERI, a Mahgreb specialist and a consultant for the European Union in sub-Saharan Africa. He is the author of Africa, the next caliphate? The spectacular expansion of jihadismpublished in February by Tallandier editions (238 pages, 20 euros).
You start from a hypothesis: certain States of the Sahel could become the seat of a caliphate and follow the path of Afghanistan. Does the fall of Bamako or Ouagadougou, like that of Kabul, seem possible to you today?
Yes, the hypothesis now seems entirely possible to me. Not in the form of a seizure of power by force by a jihadist group, but by wearing down the defense forces of these countries, which would lead to compromises for a return to peace in return for a demand for application of a number of rules, in particular from the Sharia. Jihadist groups are already imposing this in the regions of Mali that they control or over which they have a strong influence. Their real challenge today is to find political, religious and military partners capable of accepting that one of the solutions to the war would be in this type of configuration.
You say that jihadist organizations have learned from their mistakes in Syria and Iraq and are now avoiding cities to focus on rural areas. An offensive on a capital would therefore be too risky?
Sahelian jihadists have learned a great lesson from what happened in Sirte, Libya. Experience has shown that having an emirate that pledges allegiance to the caliphate in the Levant, while threatening Europe on its doorstep, leads to the intervention of an international coalition. So I believe that even if a seizure of power by force may be an option, it will not be considered internally as beneficial. On the contrary, the jihadists tell themselves that it is better to take the time to work in depth with the elites, relays who may, at some point, consider that their survival depends on a change in political and religious norms. Today, because of their power on the ground, armed jihadist groups can hope to find in the Salafist politico-religious forces the partners of tomorrow to co-manage the states or Islamic republics of the future.
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