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The effects of Western sanctions on Russia are severe – especially in the area of aviation, which is essential in a country as large as Russia. Without Western technology and Western money, not a single civilian plane takes off in Russia.
The international sanctions hit Russian aviation to the core – this is shown by Aeroflot, the largest airline in Russia, for example: its fleet comprises 186 aircraft. By far the largest part – 177 aircraft – come from Airbus and Boeing. Only 9 machines are of Russian origin.
And what applies to Aeroflot also applies to the majority of other airlines, explains Max Oldorf, consultant at the aeronautical information service CH-Aviation: “Over the last ten or fifteen years, Russian aviation has modernized extremely. And that’s what they did with Western planes.”
Western technology was also needed for modernization. And even the only modern aircraft made in Russia – a regional jet manufactured by Sukhoi – relies on Western technology. “The engines come from western countries and the avionics in the cockpit are also western,” explains Oldorf. The sanction provisions would also apply to these parts.
Sooner or later the planes will no longer be able to take off.
Even if you fly a Russian plane in Russia, you would eventually get to the point where there are no more spare parts, emphasizes Oldorf. Because from now on it is forbidden to deliver spare parts for aircraft to Russia. Material wear and tear in aircraft is high and they therefore have to be serviced regularly. Even maintenance work by Western companies is no longer allowed.
The consequences are foreseeable: sooner or later planes will no longer be able to take off, says Laurent Chassot. He is a partner at gbf-Anwälte in Geneva and specializes in aviation law: “It happens very quickly. Spare parts are needed very regularly and if these are not allowed to be exported to Russia, the aircraft will very quickly become unflyable and may no longer be operated.”
leeway is small
Procuring spare parts in other ways is theoretically possible, but tricky, explains the lawyer Chassot. Because the US sanctions in particular also had an extraterritorial effect – i.e. beyond national borders: spare parts from third countries cannot simply be resold to Russia, according to Laurent Chassot. “In the USA, people are not only talking about export controls, but also about controls that prohibit the resale of goods from the USA to third countries.”
So the scope is small. Russia is thus in the same situation as Iran and North Korea have been for years. In addition, Russian aviation is not only technologically but also financially dependent on the West. This is also shown by the example of Aeroflot: The Russian airline “owns” only 37 of its 186 aircraft. The rest is leased, mostly from companies in Europe.
Due to the sanctions, all these leasing contracts must now also be terminated – by the end of March. This raises a question, says aviation expert Max Oldorf: “Will these planes be returned or will they simply be ‘nationalized’, i.e. confiscated by Russia?”
First Russian airlines have already indicated that they will not return the leased planes. Although they could still fly for a moment with the confiscated aircraft, the question of spare parts then arises at some point. The Western sanctions are therefore taking effect over time and ultimately result in the aircraft fleets in Russia becoming steadily smaller.