In the middle of the conflict with Russia, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia decides to reduce production, alienating the West. However, the break has long been apparent.
At the Opec-plus meeting in Vienna, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud appeared unimpressed by Western warnings not to cut oil production in the middle of the energy crisis.
When Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud addressed the press at the OPEC plus conference in Vienna on Wednesday, he did not have good news for the West. Together with the oil cartel, an agreement has been reached on a reduction in oil production, Al Saud announced.
At the beginning of winter of all times, up to 2 million barrels less crude oil are threatening to hit the market every day. And that in the middle of the worst energy crisis in decades. Even if the actual reduction may end up being a bit lower – for Americans and Europeans this is a slap in the face.
For months, their heads of state had flocked to the Gulf to get the petrostates to produce more oil and thus take the pressure off the oil price, which had been climbing since the start of the Ukraine war. For free. Instead, the Opec-plus countries led by Saudi Arabia now want to turn off the tap even further.
This is an affront, especially for Joe Biden
The Opec decision is an affront, especially for Joe Biden. It was not until July that the US President jumped over his shadow and paid his respects to Mohammed bin Salman, the powerful Saudi crown prince, who is actually considered persona non grata in Washington for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Bin Salman retaliated by having the throttling announced just before the midterm elections, which are so important for Biden. The reactions from Washington were corresponding. It was a serious mistake that must be punished, said Democratic Senator Chris Murphy. And from the White House, Biden announced that he was very “disappointed”.
The Saudis, on the other hand, don’t seem to care about Western anger. Energy Minister Al Saud dismissed criticism of the decision and replied that it was simply a matter of stabilizing the price of oil in view of the uncertain global economic situation. He described the accusation that he was provoking energy poverty in Europe as an expression of “rich arrogance”.
America seems to be just one partner among many
That such a comment comes from a country that wants to host the Asian Winter Games in the middle of the desert may sound presumptuous. But the Saudis are right: in the end, so goes their mantra, everyone is on their own, and higher oil prices mean more money, no matter what their Western allies think about it.
The fact that they are working with the Russians, who are also benefiting from the throttling as an Opec-plus member, shows the low point in relations between Washington and the once-reliable gas station in the Gulf. America, it seems, is just one partner among many for Riyadh. The oil monarchies have long been selling most of their raw materials to Asia.
For many years, the Saudis and the Americans were linked by a seemingly unshakable marriage of convenience. The US protects the ultra-conservative kingdom from Arab revolutionaries, godless communists and last but not least from its arch-enemy Iran. In return, Riyadh kept the oil flowing, oil prices stable, and economies in the US and Europe afloat.
Riyadh feels betrayed
But there has been a crisis between the two partners for a long time. The Americans are concerned that the once predictable Saudi Arabia under the young, unscrupulous Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is becoming increasingly authoritarian and has been waging a brutal war in Yemen for more than seven years.
In addition, thanks to fracking, Washington is less and less dependent on Saudi oil. Riyadh, on the other hand, has felt betrayed by the US ever since the US flirted with Iran under Obama and stood by while Saudi allies such as Egypt’s autocrat Hosni Mubarak were ousted from office during the 2011 Arab Spring.
For this reason, Saudi Arabia – but also the smaller Gulf states allied with it, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – have long since looked elsewhere for friends. On a regional level they work together with the Israelis, on a global level the focus is on Russia or China.
While Beijing’s authoritarian capitalism in Riyadh is apparently seen as a model for reforms at home, there is a close energy partnership with Russia. Similarly, the petrostates refused to sever ties with Moscow when Putin invaded Ukraine.
The Americans have leverage
The Opec-plus decision is therefore a rude awakening for Europeans and Americans. It is only now, in the hour of need, that the Western capitals seem to be realizing how alienated the Gulf States are from the West.
Demands are now being made in Washington to punish the Saudis for their recalcitrant attitude. In fact, the Americans have leverage. So Saudi Arabia is still dependent on American protection and weapons. Neither China nor the Russians, who are currently doing anything but tout their military capabilities in Ukraine, can play that role.
Several Democratic congressmen now want to withdraw all remaining troops and missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For the two monarchies, which have recently been repeatedly attacked by Iranian drones, that would be a severe blow.
The Saudis are also dependent on the West
In addition, Washington only approved new arms exports to the two Gulf states in August, including 300 Patriot missiles for Saudi Arabia. The USA could now put these exports on hold for the time being. Since Saudi Arabia is the most important buyer of American armaments with around 23 percent of all exports, the Americans would also cut themselves in the flesh.
It is questionable whether the Saudis, who are bursting with self-confidence, will be impressed by this. The Crown Prince knows how urgently the West is currently dependent on a secure energy supply. However, he also knows that he needs Western technology and investments to modernize his kingdom, which is completely dependent on oil exports. The USA and Germany in particular are important trading partners.
Saudi Arabia will therefore hardly want to risk a definitive break with the West. Riyadh is already showing itself to be at least a little conciliatory. Saudi Arabia will continue to supply oil reliably, the state oil company Saudi-Aramco announced shortly after the OPEC decision. And even promised the desperate Europeans slight price reductions.