(BFM Bourse) – As usual, BFM Bourse draws up the list since the beginning of the year of the biggest rises and falls of the expanded index of the Paris Stock Exchange. Solutions 30 shows the strongest progression while Orpea is still evolving in the depths of the stock market.
With the bullish markets, certain stocks that had suffered last year are taking a nice revenge, provided they have not seen their financial balance sheet deteriorate. This is more or less the conclusion of the path of losers and winners of the SBF 120 over the first six months or so.
Since the beginning of the year, the markets have been on an upward trend, thanks to the reopening of China and good corporate results. The SBF 120 has thus gained more than 9% since 1 January. However, this progress has obviously not been linear, with fears about the banking sector in March and above all, in recent weeks, about the deterioration of the economy with risks of recession on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as about the tightening of monetary policies.
“Despite concerns about inflation and the pullback in sovereign bonds, risky assets (like equities, editor’s note) for the most part had a decent period during the second quarter”, nevertheless judges Deutsche Bank. The German bank recalls that the United States signed an agreement at the end of May to push back the specter of debt, thus erasing one of the great scarecrows of the equity markets.
In this context, which titles have done best? And the worst?
The relaunch of Solutions 30
As shown in the graph above, the first place is occupied by Solutions 30 (+61.2%).
The former PC-30 had a complicated year 2022 on the stock market and was also part of the “flops” of last year, with fears about its activity, especially in France where its markets are reaching maturity. But 2023 has already started well, with growth of 14.5% in organic data and 14.6% in published data over the first three months of the year. The group was driven internationally, particularly in the Belgium-Netherlands-Luxembourg region, with a 77% increase like-for-like, thanks to the dynamic deployment of fiber optics in this region and electricity meters in Flanders .
“Several new elements should support this performance over the coming months: the entry of new contracts in the south-east of France (20 million euros impact over nine months, 30 million euros in a full year), the implementation of the contract with Community Fiber in London, the prospect of starting fiber optic activities in Germany”, underlined in May TP ICAP Midcap, on the purchase on the file. Solutions 30 is aiming for more than one billion euros in turnover this year.
Forvia (+58.32%), which replaced “Faurecia” on the Paris Stock Exchange, is also taking its revenge on the Stock Exchange, after a difficult year 2022. The company that brings together auto parts manufacturers Hella and Faurecia had suffered last year from fears about its balance sheet and the impact of inflation on its margins. But the group has now made good progress on its 1 billion euro disposal plan, which will be finalized this year, and has sent encouraging signals both in terms of its annual results and in terms of its first quarter activity. Jefferies recently switched to buying on value. The bank considers the current environment more favorable to equipment manufacturers and highlights the significant operating leverage (ie its ability to improve its results with the increase in volumes) of the company. Another automotive supplier, Plastic Omnium (+24.15%), also comes in tenth place in the ranking.
Atos (+56.62%) climbs to the third step of the podium. The value rose above all at the start of the year (with a peak reached in early March) thanks in particular to Airbus’ interest in taking a minority stake in its future digital transformation, big data and cybersecurity subsidiary, Eviden. The abandonment of discussions on this investment, at the end of March, certainly then weighed on the title. But Atos delivered rather reassuring publications on the evolution of its activity and also won a legal battle linked to an old dispute by its subsidiary Syntel. More recently, the digital services company has raised its medium-term ambitions for “Tech Foundations”, which brings together the company’s historical activities, such as outsourcing. The company also still plans to list the Eviden division on the stock exchange in the second half of this year.
Orpea always lower
We can group together Accor (+42.8%) and Air France-KLM (+37.69%) which both benefit from the rebound in tourism, coupled with a good operational execution. This has prompted research departments to raise their opinions on these titles.
It should be noted that the CAC 40 groups are not very high in the top 10. Seventh, STMicroelectronics (+32.75%) benefited from the rebound in technology stocks (the Nasdaq has won more than 31% since the start of the year) but also its good results, particularly in the automobile segment. Hermès, for its part, is in eighth place with an increase of 28.87%, while luxury remains a segment that shone at the start of the year thanks to the recovery of China. Some consultancies, such as Deutsche Bank, however believe that the time has come to be selective in the sector.
On the other side of the ranking, the two largest drops will not surprise many people. Orpea shows the largest fall of the year (-70.24%). The operator of retirement homes has known since the publication of the book-investigation The Gravediggers in January 2022 a descent into stock market hell. From a reputational crisis with accusations of child abuse, the group went into a financial crisis with soaring labor and energy costs that dented its financial results. With a heavy debt (9.7 billion euros gross at the end of 2022), the group had no choice but to launch a vast financial restructuring with the key to a dilution which will stand at…99.96 %.
Casino also suffers. Strangled by its indebtedness and its significant consumption of cash quarter after quarter, the distribution group (-67.91%) entered the conciliation procedure to restructure its debt. The company has already warned that it intends to convert between 4.5 and 5.1 billion euros of debt into equity, which again augurs massive dilution. The two proposed capital contribution offers, that of the duo Kretinsky-Ladreit de Lacharrière and that of the trio Niel-Pigasse-Zouari, provide that the current shareholders (apart of course from the holding companies of Daniel Kretinsky and Marc Ladreit de Lacharrière, for the first proposal) will hold less than 1% of the capital, at the end of the restructuring.
The name Clariane (-37.06%) may mean nothing to you, but it is quite simply the new name of Korian, the other major operator of retirement homes. The market has been worried about the group’s refinancing operations with around 900 million euros in liabilities maturing this year and just less in 2024.
The “top” 5 is completed by Teleperformance (-34.89%) which also shows the sharpest fall in the CAC 40, with the announcement of a transforming acquisition poorly received by the market (that of the Luxembourg Majorel) and fears of disruption of its economic model by generative artificial intelligence, as well as by Nexity (-29.55%). The real estate developer is suffering from difficult market conditions with a plunge in the new housing market, the shortage of building permits and even high land prices.
Julien Marion – ©2023 BFM Bourse