Israel’s goal is clear: the army should also wipe out the four remaining Hamas battalions, which are holed up in Rafah. Can the warnings from Chancellor Scholz and US President Biden still protect refugees from a humanitarian catastrophe?
If Olaf Scholz did not travel on a Luftwaffe plane but instead flew on a regular flight, the first thing the Chancellor would have greeted upon his arrival in Israel would be 134 hostages who are still in the hands of the terrorists. Anyone who makes their way from the boarding gate to passport control at Tel Aviv airport looks at all their faces; meter by meter there are portraits of the abductees, laughing, often young people. According to Hamas statements, around 30 of them are no longer alive. Who is dead and who is alive – the families of the hostages do not know.
Israel’s message to everyone arriving is clear: you are now entering a country that has not only suffered the most brutal injuries, but still fears for the lives of 134 abductees. Keep that in mind. But no matter how hard one might try to empathize, to feel the drama that the Israelis have been going through since the massacre on October 7th, it is difficult to measure what it is like to live in a country that is collectively in trauma and feels violated.
That may be what the German Chancellor has in mind, although now, after more than five months of war in the Gaza Strip and many accusations from aid organizations about Israeli blockades, the first thing he says is: Israel has the right to defend itself against the Islamist terror of Hamas. Nevertheless, criticism and warnings are now in the foreground among Israel’s Western partners.
Criticism because the situation for the civilian population in the Gaza Strip, which is being attacked by the Israeli armed forces, is becoming increasingly threatening. Experts in food crisis analysis predict a famine in northern Gaza in the next few weeks. According to an analysis by the “Integrated Food Security Phase Classification” (IPC) panel, the population throughout the entire Gaza area is struggling with an extremely insecure food supply situation. Half of the population is already in the worst situation.
“Are there other ways?”
“No matter how important the goal may be, can it justify such terribly high costs?” asked Scholz on Sunday evening at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Or are there other ways to achieve this goal?”
A question that not only the head of government has routinely answered for five and a half months, but also representatives of the armed forces and security authorities. It doesn’t seem to matter who exactly you ask, but it is increasingly important to the Israelis to show what was in effect until October 6, 2023, the day before the Hamas massacre in the south of the country.
“There were no Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, no armed forces,” says a senior Defense Ministry official. “Instead, water, electricity and jobs outside the Gaza Strip for more than 15,000 Palestinians.” The fact that Israel regularly carried out air strikes against Gaza in response to military strikes by Hamas remains unmentioned. The Israeli assessment of the time before the massacre was: Living in the neighborhood of Gaza – we have already tried that.
The Israeli view of future prospects is based on what was in effect until October 6th and what happened on October 7th: There are none as long as Hamas still exists. Having Palestinians separated by a border fence, among whom terrorist structures could still exist, no matter how weak and isolated, is not an option. The terrorists’ military capabilities must be wiped out, which is also how a large part of the population sees it. In surveys, 40 percent of Israelis even say they would forgo freeing the hostages if this was the only way to defeat Hamas.
Four battalions left
Wiping out Hamas – from the perspective of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), the army is well on the way to this goal. Of the 24 battalions attributed to the terrorist group, 20 are said to have been defeated. The remaining four see the IDF entrenched in southern Rafah. And now a permanent ceasefire? Now stop, as Western supporting states are demanding? For most Israelis, and not just those who serve in the military or security agencies, this is an absurd idea.
The Israeli goal remains “to eliminate the remaining terrorist battalions in Rafah,” Netanyahu said yesterday in the direction of Olaf Scholz and everyone else who expects Israel to look for alternatives to ground troops against Rafah. Even if an agreement were reached in the negotiations that have been underway again in Qatar since today, with the participation of the Israelis for the first time in weeks, the maximum that Hamas can get in relation to the threatened ground offensive is a temporary ceasefire.
“A break,” is what IDF Major David Baruch calls it in an interview with ntv.de. Even if it lasts six weeks. “It won’t be more than a break,” says the officer. That’s how the government sees it too. In order to dissuade Israel from using ground troops to wipe out the last remaining four Hamas battalions, “Hamas would have to put down its weapons,” explains Baruch, who works in the Defense Ministry.
Of course, Israel is officially not satisfied with the humanitarian situation in Gaza. But the inadequate supply of the internally displaced people, some of whom are starving, is largely blamed on Hamas. With a view to suffering civilians, Prime Minister Netanyahu also reiterated on Sunday that a ground offensive in Rafah would go hand in hand with giving the civilian population the opportunity to leave the place.
This response underscores the fears of many that Israel’s protective measures will be inadequate. A possibility of “leaving” Rafah, as Netanyahu says, means nothing more than, with a bit of luck, not being hit by machine gun fire, shrapnel or falling building rubble. She doesn’t answer the question of where to get drinking water, food and a toilet.
Hold up the mirror
It’s about 1.4 million people, many of whom have already been sent away from the north or the center of Gaza. Contrasting their fate with the military goal, insisting that despite all the injuries and all the threats, humanity must still prevail, that is now the thrust of the German government.
“We cannot have a future for Gaza, for peace, for Israel if the terrorist organization committed to the genocide against us remains intact,” says Netanyahu.
“We cannot stand by and watch Palestinians starve,” says Scholz.
The Chancellor added: “That’s not us, that’s not what we stand for.” Drawing a red line before the ground offensive in Rafah, as US President Joe Biden did, is not Scholz’s mission. After all, Germany hardly has any military or financial resources with which to prosper. Unlike Washington. So Scholz is trying to hold a mirror up to Netanyahu, to convey that atrocities are not acceptable, even if they are meant to respond to other atrocities.
As hopeless as the Chancellor’s plea seems, it cannot be dispensed with. Because even if Netanyahu sticks to his line, surveys show that the population is on the move. In January, 29 percent of Israelis voted in polls in favor of a longer ceasefire, including the exchange of hostages and the release of Palestinian prisoners. Now in March there are already 33. They also hear what Scholz says.
The US could draw harsher consequences if Israel marches on Rafah, as President Joe Biden has at least threatened. But analysts doubt that they would do this. There are many indications that it will become apparent soon. When Israel crosses the red line towards Rafah.