Friday 20th August 2021
Scholz much more popular
In the survey, the SPD and Union are almost on par
Almost a third of Germans can imagine a government led by Social Democrats after the election – so the SPD is on a par with the Union. Scholz continues to grow strongly in favor of voters in the ARD “Deutschlandtrend”, while Laschet is again falling slightly.
According to a survey by the Infratest dimap institute, the SPD is catching up with voters. According to the “Deutschlandtrend” in the ARD “Morgenmagazin”, 30 percent of those questioned said they would like a federal government led by the Social Democrats. That is six percentage points more than at the beginning of August. Another 30 percent are in favor of a conservative government led by the CDU / CSU (minus five). Only 15 percent prefer a cabinet led by the Greens (minus one). 25 percent still express no preference.
If the Federal Chancellor could be elected directly, 41 percent of Germans would now choose SPD candidate Olaf Scholz – 6 percentage points more than at the beginning of August. Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet (CDU) would like 16 (minus 4) percent of those surveyed. And twelve percent (minus 4) would like to have Annalena Baerbock (Greens) in the Chancellery. 31 percent of those surveyed (plus 2) do not want to commit to any of the three.
In response to the question “If the general election were on Sunday …” (Sunday question), the Union received 23 percent of the vote (minus 4). The SPD would get its best result since January 2018 with 21 percent (plus 3). The Greens lose two percent and still come to 17 percent. FDP, AfD and Left each gain one percentage point and currently come to 13, 11 and 7 percent.
Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The institute gives a statistical margin of error of two to three percentage points. In principle, surveys only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.