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The scientific council shared this week with the government its seventh opinion presenting four conceivable scenarios for the rest of this post-containment period. Scenarios that envision all possibilities, from the most reassuring to the most pessimistic. Decryption.
These 4 scenarios different allow "prepare France for the epidemic and reduce its consequences" affirm the scientific Council. So what can we expect for the coming months? "The epidemic is under control in France" said Friday morning on France Inter the president of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy. Indeed, since the release from containment, the number of new sick and dead continues to decline. Yes the most optimistic scenario currently seems to be the most likely, the other three scenarios should not be overlooked. These four possibilities will have to be updated as scientific knowledge and operational requirements evolve.
Scenario 1: the epidemic is under control
In this first scenario which appears to be "most favorable", localized clusters are under control, which means that the virus is circulating at low speed and that the health indicators are looking good. However, this scenario, although reassuring, requires "continued measures to fight the epidemic". Barrier gestures must continue to be applied for at least 6 months. Given the current situation, this scenario would be most likely. The Scientific Council explains that "he can be favored by the reduction usually observed in summer (Europe zone) in the circulation of respiratory viruses. "
Scenario 2: critical clusters appear
This second scenario is "more unfavorable ". Critical clusters appear and therefore suggest loss of control of the epidemic caused by loss of control of the transmission chains. To prevent the virus from spreading, "strict, early and localized measures" would be required in order to avoid a wider loss of control of the epidemic. Localized containment perhaps considered to avoid scenario 3.
Scenario 3: the epidemic is gradually resuming
The health indicators (number of hospitalizations, positive tests, etc.) would gradually deteriorate, which would not allow the chains of contamination to be identified and even less to control them. Of restrictions on social life to take to make up for this harmful development could be envisaged at regional or national level if the indicators require it.
Scenario 4: loss of control of the epidemic
In this scenario the most pessimistic, "the critical deterioration of indicators would indicate a loss of control of the epidemic, and would require tough decisions" . Among them, "generalized national confinement in order to minimize direct mortality " or "other collective, economic and social objectives, accompanied by significant direct mortality."
The Scientific Council recommends right now the development of a major prevention plan called P2R-COVID whose measures will be adapted according to the evolution of the epidemic. Indeed, the reaction time is "a defining parameter in controlling the epidemic".
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by Chloe Delaporte