Security expert at Lanz
“It’s not the bomb that’s the weapon, it’s the fear of it”
By Marko Schlichting
03/23/2022, 05:17 am
The war in Ukraine may last for a very long time. But it is not certain that Russia will win it, says security expert Florence Gaub at Markus Lanz. A long battle for Mariupol Kyiv could play into the cards. The scientist thinks it is unlikely that Putin will instigate a nuclear war. He’s about something else.
The images from the embattled Ukrainian city of Mariupol are disturbing. They show body bags on the streets, streets completely destroyed, people cowering in air raid shelters while the city above them has become a battlefield. These are images that until recently seemed unimaginable in the heart of Europe in the 21st century. On Tuesday evening, among others, security expert Florence Gaub will be a guest with Markus Lanz on ZDF. They don’t leave the pictures indifferent either, which are shown again and again in the course of the talk. But Putin’s actions in Mariupol could end up being his own downfall, says the military researcher. And she explains why Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening to use nuclear weapons.
“Russia’s strategy didn’t work”
One shouldn’t let the pictures from Mariupol distract one from Putin’s actual goal. “It’s not his goal to destroy Mariupol,” says Gaub. The previous Russian strategy did not work. “Now they’re switching to a strategy of punishment,” says Gaub, explaining the type of warfare that can now be observed. This tactic primarily destroys civilian targets in order to wear down the enemy. From a strategic point of view, it “makes perfect sense” for Ukraine if the Russian army gets stuck in Mariupol, says Gaub. “It will be several weeks before the Russians have conquered the city and they will come out weakened. That is in Kiev’s interest,” said Gaub.
The scientist predicts that this strategy will not work for the Russian army anyway. As a rule, it tends to increase popular resentment towards the opponent.
Putin expected a quick victory in Ukraine. There have been no reports of military success for almost four weeks. That’s why Mariupol is important to the Russians, because they hope to achieve at least something with the siege, says Gaub.
In general, nothing is going according to plan for the Russian army. Putin did not expect the popularity of the Ukrainian president or the strength of the Ukrainian army, nor that the West would take such a strong stance against him. “We didn’t know that ourselves.” Now it is difficult for Putin to get out of the situation. According to Gaub, the Ukrainians are responding to the Russian strategy of punishment with a “porcupine strategy”: They are denying victory to the Russians. They make it very painful for the Russians to move at all. “For example, the Ukrainians have succeeded in interrupting supply chains. As a result, the Russian army now lacks petrol,” explains Gaub, who also does not believe that the Ukrainian capital Kyiv will be encircled. The last time the Nazis managed to do that was in World War II, but they needed half a million soldiers, and Putin didn’t have them.
Putin’s Strategy of Fear
That is why Putin used another strategy, the strategy of fear. He threatened to use nuclear weapons. “Talking about a third world war scares us. That’s what Putin wants. It’s not the bomb that’s the weapon, it’s the fear of the bomb,” says Gaub, who is also a researcher in the field of military sociology.
“It won’t happen that we all die in a nuclear war,” she says with certainty. If anything, Russia would deploy a tactical bomb that might only destroy a neighborhood or small town. But that only makes sense if the opponent would then capitulate. But that will not break the Ukrainians’ will to win. For Putin, this would be the absolute “game-over”.
“Ukrainians have a real chance of winning”
It could be a long time before this war is over. But according to Gaub, that’s no reason that “everything has to end badly” in the end. “We are approaching a stalemate, but Ukraine has a real chance of winning this war.” This means that Russia could be forced into peace negotiations. The West can also help, says Gaub. He has often surprised Putin in recent weeks. “It’s important that we continue to surprise Putin. Something should happen about every two weeks that Putin doesn’t expect,” the strategy expert said.