The Munich Security Conference – the most important security policy meeting in the world – begins on Friday. SRF correspondent Fredy Gsteiger gives answers to the most important questions.
What is the Munich Security Conference?
What the World Economic Forum (WEF) is to business is what the Security Conference is to security and foreign policy: the most important annual top-level meeting. Around fifty heads of state and government are present in Munich, as well as around a hundred ministers, as well as national security advisors, heads of secret service, generals and the heads of important non-governmental organizations.
What will be decided in Munich?
Nothing. The conference has no official character. No formal negotiations will take place. But paths are often mapped out, decisions are prepared, solutions are considered. Not on the big stage, but in the back rooms of the “Bayerischer Hof” hotel, where the event has been taking place for decades.
This year, key players in the Gaza war are expected to be the Israeli President, the Palestinian Prime Minister, the King of Jordan, the Prime Minister of Qatar and the Egyptian Foreign Minister. You could use the opportunity to find ways out of the conflict.
What role does the Ukraine war play?
A central one. Unlike before the attack on Ukraine, Russia is no longer represented in Munich. But almost all the other key characters are there. The mood regarding Ukraine is significantly worse this year than last year, when the West was united, NATO was strengthened and Ukraine was planning a major spring offensive. Nothing came of the latter.
Cracks are beginning to appear in NATO again. And in the battlefield the clock is ticking against Ukraine. Western intelligence services, such as the Norwegian one, assume that Russia is about to gain the upper hand.
Is peace an issue for Ukraine?
Certainly. But no one knows exactly how this can be achieved. Russian President Vladimir Putin says the war would be over in an instant if the West stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine. In the West it is said that if Russia withdrew to its territory, peace would return overnight. Both are probably correct. But an end to Western support would lead to a Russian dictated peace – the end of democratic, sovereign Ukraine. And the Kremlin is not in favor of a Russian withdrawal from occupied Ukrainian territory.
What role does Switzerland play?
Normally it is represented at Federal Council level in Munich, sometimes even twice. This time, Federal President Viola Amherd, who wanted to represent Switzerland, canceled at short notice due to domestic political obligations. Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis is also missing. This makes Switzerland one of the few European countries that does not delegate a member of the government to Munich.
This is not ideal, especially since Switzerland relies on networking for security policy. Their security depends on Europe’s security and on NATO. Switzerland therefore has an interest in making it clear that it is doing something about it and is not a free rider. Switzerland would also have to promote the Ukraine peace conference that it wants to organize here. Although there is a certain amount of goodwill for this, people in many capitals still don’t seem to be really convinced about the project.