Senate and White House in danger: Democratic rebel Manchin is attacking his own party

Senate and White House in danger
Democratic rebel Manchin is attacking his own party

By Roland Peters
November 10, 2023, 9:03 p.m

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A senator decides not to run again, and the US Democrats are even more concerned about their majority in the congressional chamber. But things could get even worse in 2024. Joe Manchin is said to be considering running for president against US President Biden.

While the US Democrats were still celebrating their election successes on Tuesday, on Thursday Joe Manchin launched a blood attack against his own party with his leg outstretched. “I will not run for re-election,” the senator announced in a video message. He achieved what he wanted for West Virginia. Instead, the 76-year-old wants to travel around the country and find out whether there is interest in a new movement “to mobilize the middle.” This means: No withdrawal from politics, but possibly a new project.

The Democrats and the independents who usually vote with them have a narrow majority in the Senate of 51 seats to the Republicans’ 49 seats. Still. According to surveys, the Democrats have a significantly higher risk of losing their majority in the Chamber of Congress in next year’s election. If US President Joe Biden were to be re-elected at the same time, he and the Democrats would have an immense problem: Even though they hold the White House, the Republicans could pass laws on their own. For their own projects they would need the blessing of conservative renegades.

West Virginia is deeply red Republican, but Manchin had held the seat for Democrats since 2010. His resignation further increases the likelihood of a loss of the majority; It is almost certain that the Senate seat will fall into the hands of the Republicans, namely the current governor Jim Justice, by 2030. The 72-year-old is not allowed to run again after two terms in office. Justice defected from the Democrats to the Republicans in 2017 and is supported by the party and also by former President Donald Trump. Trump is the most likely Republican presidential candidate.

Coal for West Virginia and your own pocket

Manchin also became known because he had an unusual position: The Democrats have become the political refuge of many climate activists, but West Virginia is the second largest coal producing state in the USA after Wyoming. The United States burns coal for around 20 percent of its electricity, gas for 40 percent, and nearly 20 percent comes from nuclear power plants. Trump and the other Republican candidates for the presidential nomination aggressively support the view that fossil fuels should be promoted more and that environmental protection is of secondary importance. “Drill, frack, burn!” is one of the campaign slogans of Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who is applying. The United States is the world’s largest air polluter after China.

Manchin has long been a rebel in the Democratic ranks. With his one-man blockade in the Senate, which lasted over a year, against efforts to promote more renewable energies and electromobility in the face of the climate crisis, he drove the party and especially its progressive wing white hot. Manchin argued the package was bad for West Virginia’s economy. His donors come from the fossil energy industry. What he didn’t mention: He was probably also afraid for his private business. One of his companies exclusively supplied a coal-fired power plant for decades, with which he made a total of $5.6 million in profit between 2010 and 2020 alone.

In the end, Manchin softened, but at the same time stuffed conservative interests into the Democrats’ historic climate package: tax relief for the rich remained, and further state areas were put up for exploitation of fossil fuels. Coal industry workers are supported to gain a foothold in the new energy sector. The environmental organization Sunrise Movement, without whose 2020 election campaign Biden would probably not be in the White House, recently called Manchin a “coal baron.”

Left behind in polls

After he gave his approval to the legislative package in August 2022, he himself began to comment critically on it. In August, the senator said he would now wage a “relentless fight against the Biden administration’s efforts to implement the law as a radical climate agenda.” He emphasized that the fossil energy sector is also growing as a result of the historic legislative package – and because of it. But after the passage, the senator’s popularity in his state declined. In polls, Manchin was almost behind Jim Justice, most recently at 13 percent. He would have had little chance in the election next year.

According to US media, Manchin could instead consider running as a presidential candidate, for example for the “No Label” centrists around the moderate Republican Larry Hogan. They want to attract those voters who don’t want to make friends with Biden or the Republican candidates. In a June survey, a clear majority of Americans rated the lack of ability for Democrats and Republicans to work together as a “very big problem” in the country. According to polls, both Republicans and Democrats would like to see a candidate from their party other than Trump and Biden in 2024.

Manchin’s announcement that he is exploring a potential political center in the country further fuels the rumors of his candidacy. There would be a historic four-way fight for the US presidency. The left-wing intellectual Cornel West is also running. That alone worries the Democrats. In closely contested states, West could snatch crucial votes from the left – and if Manchin comes along, possibly more from swing voters or anti-Trump Republicans.

According to polls, Biden’s election chances are already extremely shaky. Trump is currently leading polls against Biden in five of the six particularly hotly contested states. The president can’t really use Manchin’s tricks.