September HCOB Flash PMIs remain depressed in the Eurozone

(Boursier.com) — The private sector in the euro zone contracted again at the end of the third quarter, the weakening of demand having led to a further decline in activity. If, as in previous months, the decline in overall activity mainly resulted from a fall in manufacturing production, activity also fell in the services sector for a second consecutive month. At the same time, employment growth continued in September, but at a marginal pace, the slowdown in job creation reflecting the development of excess capacity in companies as well as the weakest activity outlook since the fourth quarter of 2022 .

The HCOB composite Flash PMI index of overall activity nevertheless recovered from 46.7 in August to 47.1 (46.5 expected). However, it continues to indicate a sharp contraction in overall activity at the end of the third quarter. The HCOB Flash PMI index for services activity stood at 48.4 (47.9 in August and 47.6 consensus) while the HCOB Flash PMI index for the manufacturing industry fell to 43, 4 (43.5 in August and 44 consensus).

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, comments on the latest survey figures: “While the PMI data for the Eurozone services sector paints a rather gloomy picture of the sector’s conditions in September , however, certain positive points emerge from the latest results of the survey. Certainly, the activity of service providers has declined again, and the number of new contracts obtained by companies has continued to decline for three months , but employment growth continued, and at a slightly faster pace than in August. Service providers therefore do not seem to have completely lost their capacity for endurance and their optimism in the face of weakening However, we expect the eurozone to contract in the third quarter, with our immediate GDP forecast, which takes into account PMI data, pointing to a decline of 0.4% compared to the second quarter.