Friday’s surge did not prevent European and American equity markets from posting sharp declines for the past month, nor from experiencing another quarter in the red.
Last stand ? The European markets (except London) and Wall Street ended the past month on a positive note on Friday (+ 1.51% in Paris), despite the announcement of a rise in prices which accelerated further in September in the euro zone, at 10% on an annual basis, after 9.1% in August. The nasty surprise in store for German inflation the day before (which climbed to 10.9%) may have prepared people’s minds for European statistics, while the situation of bear market in which many indices sank, including the Cac 40, favored bargain purchases on the last day of the calendar month and quarter.
The results of these two periods are nonetheless very negative. After a losing week of 0.36%, the Paris index showed declines of 5.92% in September and 2.71% in the quarter. It has thus chained three quarters of decline, its longest series since 2009.
If September lived up to its reputation as the worst stock market month, with markets still nervous and depressed this week, it is almost always for the same reasons: high inflation should push the American and European central banks to raise their key rates by another 75 basis points at the next monetary policy meetings, at the more than likely risk of plunging the economies concerned into recession.
Other events, however, fueled market anxiety at the start of the week: the pound’s slide following the hugely expensive plan presented by British Prime Minister Liz Truss, the far-right election score legislative in Italy and the – probable – sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. In this stressful context, the fact that investors were willing to board Porsche racing cars or Trigano motorhomes was occasionally reassuring, but not decisive for the markets.
CECILE LE COZ