(AOF) – Shell’s point of activity for the third quarter did not live up to expectations. Regarding its gas-related activities, their result should be significantly lower than those of the second quarter of 2022 due to seasonality and “substantial differences between the realization on paper and the physical realization in a volatile and dislocated market”.
Gas production is expected to be between 890 and 940,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In LNG, liquefaction volumes should be between 6.9 and 7.5 million tonnes.
The indicative refining margin is $15 per barrel, compared to $28 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022. The decrease in the margin is expected to have a negative impact of between $1 and $1.4 billion on the Adjusted EBITDA of this segment in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2022.
The Chemicals indicative margin is expected to be negative at $27 per ton, compared to a positive margin of $86 per ton in the second quarter of 2022; the decrease in margin is expected to have a negative impact of between $300 million and $600 million on chemical products third quarter adjusted EBITDA compared to the second quarter of 2022.
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Growing global demand
The IEA (International Energy Agency) estimates that global demand should stand at 99.4 Mb/d (million barrels per day) for 2022, a level slightly revised upwards due to stronger growth. stronger than expected in March and April. However, this remains 1 Mb/d below 2019 levels. From 2023 the IEA forecasts that global oil demand should exceed pre-Covid pandemic levels, driven by Chinese demand. The latter has been strongly affected by the serious disruptions linked to Covid-19 this year. Next year, the rebound in Chinese demand will more than offset a slowdown in OECD countries. In the medium term, the strong recovery in air traffic is supporting oil demand, with an increasingly evident dynamic in air travel in Europe and North America, underlines the IEA.