Shortly before Putin’s speech in the Duma
ISW warns of secession referendum in Transnistria
February 23, 2024, 1:16 p.m
MPs from the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria could soon take concrete steps towards joining Russia. As the ISW experts report, the Moldovan government fears an imminent referendum – supported favorably by Russian President Putin.
The breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria may reportedly face a referendum on joining Russia. The Institute for the Study of War reports this in a new report. The experts refer to the statements of a Moldovan government spokesman on Telegram.
Accordingly, a Transnistrian Congress of Deputies is scheduled for February 28th. Such a referendum should be on the agenda. The pretext for such a call would be the alleged need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both, writes the ISW.
The experts also write that it could be that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use the momentum of such a decision. He could announce the annexation of the region in his speech to the State Duma planned for February 29th. However, the ISW describes such a step as possible but unlikely. It is more likely that Putin will simply welcome the measures taken by the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies in his speech.
Transnistrian opposition figure Ghenadie Ciorba had previously told the Infotag news agency that the Congress of Deputies would ask Moscow to join the Russian Federation. According to him, Putin could present this request to the State Duma on February 29, which would then probably grant it. Ciorba called on the region’s MPs to prevent the adoption of this resolution, which would give Putin “a legitimate pretext to attack the territory of Moldova, including Transnistria, under any pretext.”
The pro-Western leadership of Moldova, which is striving to join the EU, sees the country, which also borders Ukraine, which is under attack by Russia, threatened by Moscow. Russia had in the past warned the Western-backed leadership not to use force to take back the breakaway region of Transnistria.