Wednesday March 31, 2021
Significant growth after the crisis
World trade is recovering faster than expected
Global trade in goods can overcome the crisis from last year: According to the WTO, it will grow by 8.8 percent in 2021. Global trade is thus exceeding previous forecasts. The development of vaccines against the coronavirus probably plays a major role in this.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is counting on a rapid recovery after the Corona crisis. This year, world trade will increase by 8.8 percent, said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Since the middle of last year, trade has been recovering from the “blow” of the corona pandemic and has thus helped to alleviate the consequences for people, companies and economies.
The WTO raised its forecast – in October it had assumed that world trade would grow by 7.2 percent. In the Corona year 2020, world trade had shrunk significantly – but in the end not as much as feared. The minus was 5.3 percent. “The prospects for a rapid recovery in world trade have improved,” declared the WTO.
In the second half of 2020, trade in goods grew faster than expected. The reasons for the unexpectedly positive development were the announcement of effective corona vaccines in November, as well as large economic stimulus packages in many countries. According to the WTO, North America in particular is likely to boost demand this year.
Danger from third wave not yet averted
According to the forecast, European exports could increase by 8.3 percent. In the coming year, according to the current estimate, progress will be somewhat slower: For 2022, the World Trade Organization is forecasting a slowdown to growth of 4.0 percent. Okonjo-Iweala also warned that new waves of the corona pandemic could undermine “any hope of recovery”.
She believes that reacting to economic downturns with protectionism is a bad plan. She called for vaccinations against the virus to be promoted and for fair distribution worldwide. This is the best plan for the global economic recovery “that we all need”.
As long as a large number of people and countries are excluded from access to corona vaccines, this will inhibit economic growth – there is a risk that this will even reverse the global health and economic recovery.
The crisis hit the Middle East, South America and Africa in particular, with imports falling by almost 9 percent and more. In Europe, imports fell by 7.6 percent, in North America by 6.1 percent. Asia recorded the smallest decline: 1.3 percent.
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