One hundred fifty-eight billion euros. This is the sum that Russia has pocketed in the first half of the year, since the start of the invasion in Ukraine, and this, thanks to its hydrocarbon exports, of which the European Union (EU) was the main recipient. a very extensive report, published Monday, September 5, experts from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
“At least 43 billion euros have entered the coffers of the Russian state (in 2021, the federal budget was 230 billion euros) thanks to taxes and customs duties since the beginning of the war”, believes Lauri Myllyvirta, the main author. At this stage, he adds, “these revenues exceed the cost of Russian military expenditure which is estimated at 100 billion euros, while the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure is estimated at 110 billion”.
The reason for such a bonanza? The costs. Despite the sanctions, and the drop in imports from the EU, Moscow was able to skilfully compensate for the lower volumes exported by soaring prices, especially on European markets. On gas, for example, the specter of a drying up of flows has fueled stratospheric increases, with wholesale prices having more than tripled compared to 2021. In other words, in July-August, exported volumes fell by 25% compared to 2021, over the same period, while revenues increased by 30%. Results, “Gas imports may have fallen by 70%, but this country’s export earnings have hardly budged”.
In the first half of the year, the EU was still the largest importer of Russian fossil fuels (85 billion euros), ahead of China, Turkey and India. With, within the EU, Germany in first place, then the Netherlands, Italy, Poland and France (5.5 billion euros).
China replaced Germany
A panorama that should not, however, fail to evolve over the coming months. Together, the EU, NATO and the G7 countries (actually the EU, Turkey and Japan) imported 56% of Russia’s fossil fuel exports in July-August. But this figure, while substantial, is down 75% from the pre-invasion period, especially in Europe.
Over the period, Russian gas sales (by “pipeline”) fell by 56% overall, while those of coal and liquefied natural gas fell by 29% and 15% respectively. The only exception: black gold. In this area, on which the EU embargo will not come into force until December 5, Russia has even managed to increase its sales (+ 19%). Through new outlets in India, China, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.
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