Situation in Mali increasingly dangerous: Putin’s mercenaries are already ready

Situation in Mali increasingly dangerous
Putin’s mercenaries are ready

A guest contribution by Ulf Laessing

The deployment of the Bundeswehr in Mali, Africa, will continue until May. France has already announced its withdrawal. Russia stands ready with its mercenaries to fill the gap. Then the conflict threatens to escalate completely.

Unnoticed by the German public, the situation in Mali is escalating, just a few weeks before the Bundestag decides to extend the world’s largest Bundeswehr mission. In the north of the country, where the Bundeswehr is stationed as part of a United Nations blue helmet force (MINUSMA), jihadists have launched an offensive that is causing further instability. In the center of Mali, members of the army and Russian mercenaries are said to have carried out a massacre of civilians – the federal government is calling for the “shocking reports” of hundreds of killings to be clarified quickly.

Ulf Laessing heads the Sahel program of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation based in Bamako (Mali).

(Photo: KAS )

For almost ten years, the West African country has been the scene of one of the world’s largest blue helmet operations, which is intended to stabilize the crisis-ridden nation. In 2013, French soldiers expelled jihadists who had established a reign of terror in the north. But Mali – four times the size of Germany – has never really settled down. The state did not return to the areas liberated from the French. The result: jihadists and criminal networks such as smugglers spread and recruited from the impoverished population.

Worse still, the jihadists have now become an integral part of society. They are building a parallel state with their own structures, such as schools, and have also established themselves in the center of the country. While the German public is understandably focused on the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the situation in Mali has deteriorated again in recent weeks. Jihadists from the “Islamic State in the Greater Sahara” – an offshoot of the Middle Eastern terrorist group – have seized territory in the north and allegedly killed hundreds of members of the Tuareg ethnic group. According to information from military sources, they are planning another advance, this time in the direction of the city of Gao, where the Bundeswehr is also stationed.

France has already begun withdrawal

The central government in Bamako still controls the big cities in the north with the help of MINUSMA, but things are getting more uncomfortable there too. The former Tuareg rebel groups that proclaimed independence for the north in 2012 before being driven out by jihadists have united. They had been at odds for a long time, but have now buried the hatchet to negotiate with the central government about more aid for the disadvantaged north.

Like the jihadists, the ex-rebels are also preparing for the withdrawal of the French army by the summer, which, alongside MINUSMA, guaranteed security in the north. Terrorists and bandits sense that the pressure to pursue France’s anti-terrorist operation is easing. The French army has begun withdrawing from Mali after both nations fell out – the military government in Bamako wanted to end the dominance of the former colonial power and has brought Russia into the country as a military partner. But without the French with their attack helicopters, the room for maneuver of MINUSMA and the Bundeswehr – neither of which have a mandate to fight – is restricted. Western military officials fear that the security situation in the north will continue to deteriorate.

Up to 1000 Russians in Mali

While France is withdrawing and doubts about the Mali engagement are growing in Germany and other Western allies, another dangerous development is taking place in the West African country: Russia is expanding militarily. Moscow sent attack helicopters, trainers and mercenaries from the Wagner Group to Mali at the end of December, escalating the dispute with France.

Diplomats had expected that Russia would withdraw the Wagner fighters – including allegedly special forces – for the Ukraine invasion. But the opposite seems to be the case: last week Russia sent two more helicopters and allegedly also radar equipment, which Mali needs for air surveillance after the French have left. According to estimates, there are up to 1,000 Russians in Mali who are actively involved in the fighting in the centre. Mali denies the presence of Wagner fighters and emphasizes that it is an official military cooperation with Russia.

Mali’s military government has brought the Russians into the country in order to quickly gain territory in the center of the country, where jihadists originally from the north have also established themselves. They exploit local conflicts to form alliances with disadvantaged population groups. They marry into villages and local structures and can hardly be distinguished from the civilian population – they are the new parallel state. There is no military solution for this.

Russian methods

Observers had feared human rights violations with the arrival of the alleged Wagner mercenaries, as was repeatedly reported from Libya, Syria and the Central African Republic. There, the mercenaries acted arbitrarily against civilians and civilian infrastructure, and according to the human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) and corresponding media reports, this is exactly what happened last week in central Mali. Up to 400 people are said to have been killed in the small town of Moura during a multi-day operation by the Malian army and Russian mercenaries.

It began with a shootout with jihadists who control the town and surrounding area and ended with arrests and executions of villagers, according to HRW. It is undisputed that jihadists are very active in the area of ​​operations and impose their harsh rules on the villagers. But since the fighters are so difficult to distinguish from civilians, it is important to proceed “cautiously” militarily in order not to risk civilian casualties and thus continue to play into the hands of the terrorists.

The Malian army claims it only killed terrorists, 203 to be exact. Some Western observers say the Russians are imposing their methods on the Malian army and are “manipulating” Mali. However, no casualties of the armed forces were reported – which made many suspicious. The federal government, the United Nations and the United States have asked Mali to allow an independent investigation. MINUSMA has not yet received permission to visit Moura, and Mali had already banned the mission’s drone flights over regions in central Mali – where the Russians are predominantly active – in January.

The alleged killings of civilians are a burden for future talks by representatives of the federal government with Mali in the run-up to the Bundestag decision on a mandate extension. Bamako has high hopes for Germany, which is considered one of the closest western partners. Germany was the first country to recognize Mali after gaining independence. German representatives should therefore choose clear words as far as the presence of Russian Wagner mercenaries in Mali is concerned, but also underline their willingness to continue working together with Mali in principle. The stability of the Sahel region is in Germany’s interest, and a withdrawal would mean leaving the field in Mali to Russia and Wagner’s private army. We must improve coordination between development cooperation and military aid, and revise our instruments – in particular the European Union’s army and police training missions, which are considered ineffective – but we should not abandon Mali.

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