Situation more fragile than expected?
ISW: There is a threat of rapid Russian breakthroughs on the front
March 14, 2024, 3:01 a.m
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The Russian troops are only advancing slowly. This gives the impression that Ukraine has the situation quite well under control despite the lack of ammunition. But appearances may be deceptive: in some areas the troops are disastrously equipped – and could be lucky that Moscow’s troops do not attack there more intensively.
According to a recent analysis by the Institute for War Studies (ISW), the front line may be more fragile “than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors suggest.” The reason for this is the shortage of ammunition and materials in the Ukrainian armed forces due to the lack of a billion-dollar aid package from the USA. This means that resources would have to be prioritized – to the detriment of some sections of the front that are particularly poorly equipped.
The Ukrainians are currently forced to use what little material they have as efficiently as possible in order to thwart the constant Russian advances – which vary in intensity depending on the sector of the front. “Ukrainian prioritization of sectors most at risk from intense Russian offensives could create vulnerabilities elsewhere that Russian forces could exploit for sudden and surprise advances,” writes the ISW.
The US think tank also refers to a report by “Spiegel” in which Ukrainian commanders have their say. It says that in areas such as Kharkiv and Vuhledar, which are in the shadow of other theaters of war, the situation is particularly poor in terms of personnel, weapons and ammunition. An artillery commander at Wuhledar said: “We won’t be able to hold out for long like this.” Some Ukrainian units with limited ammunition and materiel could only hold their current positions if Russian forces did not “attack in full force,” the report said.
Syrskyi: Russians could push deep
The ISW warns: The fact that the Russians do not attack intensively in areas where the Ukrainians are particularly poorly equipped could “hide” the risks there. In other words, if the Kremlin troops launch a major offensive in such a section, it could become apparent that the Ukrainian soldiers are unable to put up a long resistance due to the lack of ammunition. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi warned on Telegram that there was a threat from Russian units that could advance deep into Ukrainian formations.
According to ISW, statements from Syrskyi and Ukrainian commanders indicate “that an intensification of Russian offensive operations could lead to a breakthrough and destabilization of a previously stable sector in a short period of time.”
The ISW’s conclusion is: “The current front line is unlikely to be stable. Timely Western resources for Ukrainian troops are essential to prevent Russia from exploiting an opportunity for a breakthrough on a vulnerable sector of the front.”