It is clear that the economy will take off in the Corona year. It is still unclear how bad the break-in will be. In the opinion of the economists, the crisis is likely to be roughly the same as in 2009. Economics Minister Altmaier expects major upheavals.
The so-called economic wise men expect a somewhat less severe slump in economic output in Germany than the federal government this year as a result of the Corona crisis. Due to the strong recovery in summer, the gross domestic product is likely to shrink by 5.1 percent and thus about as much as during the global financial crisis in 2009, according to the annual report, which was already available before the presentation on Wednesday. At the same time, however, the report states: "For further development, the infection process and the restrictions imposed on it remain decisive."
In the autumn forecast presented at the end of October, Federal Economics Minister Peter Altmaier expects the gross domestic product to decline by 5.5 percent. For the coming year, he expects the gross domestic product to rise by 4.4 percent. The economic wise men are forecasting somewhat weaker growth of 3.7 percent.
The pre-crisis level of the 4th quarter is unlikely to be reached before the beginning of 2022 from the perspective of the economic wise men. In its forecast, the Advisory Council assumes that the infection process can be kept under control with limited interventions, that no extensive shutdown is necessary as in the spring and that international supply chains are not significantly disrupted.
The widespread lockdown in spring had caused the economy to collapse. From July to September, however, the gross domestic product rose sharply. The council of experts for the assessment of macroeconomic development advises politics. The experts are colloquially referred to as the economic modes.
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