The snow during the Christmas period will not disappear but it should be much rarer in Europe by the end of the 21st century.e century, according to the projections made by a dozen climate models. According to these data, synthesized by the teams of the European Copernicus projectat the end of 2021, snowfall during the months of December and January will experience a sharp decline in part of the Old Continent, even more marked in the northern countries.
In the region of Helsinki (Finland), for example, snow currently accounts for around 58% of total precipitation between December and January, but could drop to 42% by the end of the century in the scenario which implies a warming cap. planetary temperature below 3°C. In the southern tip of Sweden, the share of snow could fall from 22% to 9% in the same interval.
In France, the region most affected, Alsace, could see snow fall from 21% to 14% of total precipitation over this same period, most often to the benefit of rain. In southern Europe, snowfall, already rare, could simply become non-existent, even taking into account the natural variability of the climate.
The retreat of snow and its “replacement” by rain would have profound consequences for ecosystems, particularly in Arctic countries. Less snow cover would decrease the Earth’s albedo (ie the ability to reflect solar radiation back into space), which would contribute to accelerating warming in these already deeply destabilized regions. The retreat of this cover would also lead to a melting of the permafrost (part of the constantly frozen ground, in summer as in winter), which could release large quantities of methane (a powerful greenhouse gas) which it has contained for tens of thousands of years.
The map below visualizes the share of total precipitation that will fall in the form of snow on the ground, by European region and until 2094, according to the “SSP2-4.5” scenario established for use in the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2021. This scenario implies an average warming of 3°C in average temperature by 2100, which more or less matches our current trajectory.