The objective set by the State and social landlords of 250,000 new social housing units between 2020 and 2022 will not be achieved, warns a study by the Banque des Territoires published on Tuesday.
For 2021 and 2022, the State and social landlords had set themselves a target of 250,000 new social housing units. But over these two years, less than 180,000 should come out of the ground, projects the Bank of the territories.
The institution, the leading funder of social housing through the savings of the French, in particular via the Livret A, studies each year the accounts of social landlords to assess their economic health and make longer-term forecasts.
In a very long-term prospective study, making projections up to 2060, the Banque des Territoires estimates that social landlords should be able to reconcile their objectives of energy renovation and the construction of new social housing, but at the cost of a considerable increase in their debt.
This study was carried out in a context of extremely high uncertainties, underline its authors. It does not take into account the upheavals occurring after March 2022 on the energy market, inflation or interest rates.
But that should not change the substance of their calculations, explains AFP Kosta Kastrinidis, director of loans at the Banque des Territoires.
It is because it is over such a long period that we are serene about the projections made, he says.
In concrete terms, social landlords should be able to reach a peak of 125,000 renovations per year in 2026 and 2027, before stabilizing at a rate of around 100,000 per year. From 2028, they should keep pace with 100,000 new social housing units per year.
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The most energy-intensive housing, including HLM, will be gradually banned from renting from January 2023, to encourage their owners to renovate them.
On the other hand, some donors will have more energy sieves to deal with and will have increased investment problems in the coming years, fears Kosta Kastrinidis.
One might think that these landlords could have to choose between renovating their stock and building new housing. So (we have) an overall situation for the sector which is not critical but which will reduce its ability to invest in a new cycle, in social and green areas, he says.
Any new public policies to support social housing would change the situation, however, underlines the Banque des Territoires.