Social security “will not return to equilibrium before 2030”, predicts Véran

By with AFP

It will take about eight years before the Social Security deficit regains its “balance”, announced Olivier Véran

After the record deficits caused by the Covid, Social Security “will probably not return to equilibrium before 2030”, estimated Wednesday Olivier Véran, excluding in advance of “cutting in health expenditure”, but not touching pensions .

The health crisis has not finished weighing on social security: “The situation of our social accounts is not good” and “we will take time to get out of it”, warned the Minister of Health during a a hearing before the finance and social affairs committees of the National Assembly.

The economic recovery, however, is leading to a spectacular recovery: from 38.7 billion in losses in 2020, to around 25.5 billion in 2021, significantly less than expected a few months ago.

A “relatively good news (which) could have a positive effect this year and the following ones”, indicated his colleague from Public Accounts, Olivier Dussopt, without however venturing to a revision of the 2022 deficit (expected around 20 billion) in because of the “spending uncertainties” linked to the epidemic.

No tax increase

The provision of 5 billion for tests and vaccines already appears to be insufficient, given the surge in screening tests, the bill for which should amount to 1.6 billion for the month of January alone.

But once the Covid page is turned, social security will remain “sustainably” in the red, “above 10 billion”

But once the Covid page is turned, social security will remain “sustainably” in the red, “above 10 billion” per year, said Mr. Véran. A sum largely corresponding to the salary increases of the “Ségur de la santé”, which will have to be recovered elsewhere because “we are not going to cut health spending at the end of the crisis […] at the risk of cracking our system,” he added.

Nor is there any question of increasing taxes or contributions to bail out the coffers, which “would not be a service rendered to growth”, justified Olivier Dussopt, for whom the equation “implies opening the question of the pension reform.

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