Historic but sham victory for the left and surprise entry into the running of an eccentric millionaire: the presidential election never ceases to surprise in Colombia, with a duel for the second round which promises to be close and crowns a anti-system vote to the detriment of traditional forces.
With the themes of “change” for one, and the fight against corruption for the other, capitalizing on the dissatisfaction of Colombians vis-à-vis the ruling class, these two candidates defeated the conservative and liberal elites at the head of the country for two centuries.
“Reconfiguration of the political panorama”
“Petro-Hernandez, a message of rejection from the old political class”, clearly notes the daily on Monday The Spectatorwho sees in the emergence of these two anti-system candidates “a reconfiguration of the national political panorama”.
“The anti-establishment mood of the electorate is impressive,” judge Elizabeth Dickinson, analyst at the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG).
After four years in office of outgoing conservative President Ivan Duque which saw no substantive reform, the economic shock of the pandemic, still glaring inequalities, massive anti-government protests in cities and worsening violence by armed groups in the campaigns, the “Colombians are very angry”, abounds Michael Shifter, professor at the American University of Georgetown.
Masterful slap for the right
For the right, the Democratic Center (in power) and its mentor ex-president Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010), it’s a masterful slap. Its candidate, Federico Gutierrez, immediately admitted defeat and called for a vote for Hernandez in the second round.
The conservative and liberal “allies” of the outgoing right-wing government have been “defeated”, Petro said. “The bad guys who thought they were in business forever lost,” Hernandez celebrated from his kitchen and on social media.
The historically ruling elite is “losing ground” and there is “a country that is changing”, observes Eugénie Richard, professor at Externado University. And “we end up with two anti-system candidates in the end”, notes Michael Shifter.
The “deal gets complicated” for Petro in the second round
For Petro, a big favorite in the polls for months and who was preparing to face a struggling Gutierrez in the second round, the “deal gets complicated” with his half-hearted victory, judges the ICG expert. “The electorate that rejects the old political class now has the choice between two candidates, and not just Petro, who now finds himself under a glass ceiling,” she explains.
If Petro wants to win, he will have to modify his speech to reach the greatest number, in particular urban youth and those under 25 who voted little, underlines Alexander Gamba, professor at the faculty of sociology at Saint Thomas University. . 54.91% of the 38 million registered voters voted on Sunday.
Petro must also “stop presenting himself as the anti-elite candidate and show himself as the one who can defend democracy, because many of Hernandez’s positions are openly anti-democratic”, judges the sociologist.