Levrat, Rechsteiner, Zanetti, Stöckli: In the current legislature, veteran warhorses dominated the Council of States at the SP, many at the end of their careers. The SVP will also have to do without well-known heavyweights in the coming elections.
Council of States chamber in the Federal Palace: The average age here is around 57 years – 14 years older than the Swiss population.
A good year before the federal elections, a hot autumn awaits Swiss politics. The vote on the AHV reform is probably the most important proposal that Parliament has passed in the current legislature and that the people now have to decide on. If the reform fails at the ballot box, Parliament will be under enormous pressure: In this case, the AHV would be spending more money in three years than it is taking in, due to demographic factors.
Happy 70th birthday!
From this point of view, the Council of States poses a real concentration of risk for the AHV. The average age in the small chamber is around 57 years – six years older than that in the National Council and 14 years older than that of the Swiss population. More than half of the incumbent councilors will reach retirement age by the end of the coming legislature. Spicy: The SP is particularly obsolete; of its current eight members in the small chamber, five are over 60 years old. The longest-serving parliamentarian – veteran Paul Rechsteiner from the canton of St. Gallen – will be celebrating his 70th birthday the week after next.
The trade unionist has still not officially stated whether he will stand again in the national elections in October 2023. The same applies to his 68-year-old party colleague Roberto Zanetti from the canton of Solothurn. Political observers assume that the two oldies will no longer stand for re-election. Rechsteiner and Zanetti have postponed their entry into political retirement age and thus present the SP with a dilemma: they are too old to continue and there is a risk of losing seats if they resign.
Then there were only eight. . .
The unfavorable age mix becomes a problem for the Social Democrats in the federal elections. As the pole party in by-elections in many cantons, the SP is dependent on special constellations or exceptional political talent. This was exemplified three years ago by SP Councilor Pascal Bruderer. The flagship with charisma far into the bourgeois camp surprisingly no longer appeared four years ago. Bruderer’s seat was promptly lost to the SP. Since then, the situation in Aargau has been difficult for the SP – and this despite the fact that Cédric Wermuth, one of the influential faces, comes from the canton.
The starting position in St. Gallen is also considered a constellation in which the SP threatens to lose a seat for a long time. The fact that Rechsteiner has been waiting for his resignation for years not only has to do with his passion for politics, but also with his bourgeois preponderance: there is hardly anyone in sight in the SP who could inherit Rechsteiner, while the FDP and SVP with Susanne Vincenz-Stauffacher and Esther Friedli each have a trump card up their sleeve.
In the canton of Solothurn, the SP must reckon with a similar setback. There Franziska Roth is being traded as a possible successor to Zanetti. However, it will be anything but easy for the SP national councilor to defend the seat of the left. According to the “Solothurner Zeitung”, the FDP has a potential candidate in government councilor Remo Ankli with whom it could regain the seat it lost in Stöckli in 2011. Ankli appeals to many voters, and the Solothurn FDP is still a brand to this day. The SVP should also have ambitions, with National Councilor Christian Imark standing out – even if he is only suitable to a limited extent with his sometimes polarizing appearances.
Such prospects are particularly grim for the SP because it lost three seats in the Council of States in the 2019 elections – a quarter of what it was before. With the change from ex-party leader Christian Levrat to the Postspitze, the SP has since lost another seat. Central politician Isabelle Chassot was elected to replace him in 2021. The party is now miles away from the peak of 12 seats that the SP achieved in the 2015 elections. It is more likely that in 2023 it will fall as low as it has not since the 1990s, when the comrades in the Council of States were never able to win more than six seats.
A heavyweight from Vaud as a bright spot
The starting position for the SP in the canton of Bern looks uncertain, albeit better. There the more than 70-year-old Hans Stöckli announced his resignation. National Councilor Flavia Wasserfallen has expressed her interest in moving to the small chamber. Within the party, there shouldn’t be any hurdles in the way of the Bern native, as she fits in perfectly with the job profile as a 43-year-old woman and former SP general secretary. On August 31, the SP delegates should nominate Wasserfallen as a candidate for the Council of States. Whether she also wins in the federal elections depends heavily on which of the competition enters the race. Above all, it is unclear whether the commoners appear united. It cannot be ruled out that they will both occupy seats in Bern, as was the case until 2003.
When looking for a glimmer of hope for the comrades, one canton in particular stands out: Titan Pierre-Yves Maillard gets into the ring in Vaud. At least here, a seat gain for the SP is considered certain, with which losses in other cantons can be offset. The union boss can hardly be denied the move to the Stöckli. The importance of Maillard was shown before the summer holidays when he ousted SP faction leader Roger Nordmann, who also had ambitions for a seat in the small chamber. The only open question is whether the gain in seats in Vaud is at the expense of the FDP or the Greens.
SVP faces a problem in their stronghold
It is also a problem for the SVP that elections to the Council of States are personal elections. These are more difficult for the pole parties to win because the votes of their own party supporters are not sufficient for success. This can be seen in the canton of Schwyz, a stronghold of the People’s Party. Until 2019, the party with the most votes by far, Peter Föhn and Alex Kuprecht, had both seats on the Council of States – a national rarity. Four years ago, the defense of the first seat after the departure of Föhn failed. He was succeeded by Othmar Reichmuth from the Mitte party.
In the coming elections, the second seat is also shaking. This is because 65-year-old Alex Kuprecht, a champion of the old school, has announced his resignation and his potential successor within the party is anything but uncontroversial. Pirmin Schwander is well-established as a member of the National Council for many years, but there are also some exponents within the party who deny him the format as a member of the Council of States due to his frequent solo runs and unconventional actions. Schwander polarizes – not an ideal prerequisite for the Council of States election campaign.
In addition, the 61-year-old faces strong competition from the FDP. With Petra Gössi, the Liberals send the former national party president into the race. In the 2019 National Council elections, both opponents fought a neck-and-neck race. Petra Gössi got 17,517 votes, Pirmin Schwander received 17,074. An exciting election day is guaranteed.
Hardly anything revolves around SP and SVP in Zurich
Rather unexpectedly, the SVP also has to fear for its seat in the canton of Aargau, which it conquered in 2019. This after the then successful Hansjörg Knecht surprisingly announced his resignation. The defense of the mandate is by no means a sure-fire success. Some potential applicants such as government councilor Alex Hürzeler or national councilor Thomas Burgherr have already jumped off the candidate carousel. The focus is currently on National Council members Martina Bircher and Benjamin Giezendanner.
But Knecht’s waiver lets the left-green scent of dawn. With the current President of the National Council, Irène Kälin, the Greens have a candidate who has greatly increased their profile. National Councilor Gabriela Suter is ready for a candidacy for the SP. One thing is certain: the fight for the vacant seat will be a nail-biter for everyone.
Not least in Zurich, the resignation of FDP member of the Council of States Ruedi Noser should actually be an opportunity for the SVP to finally get a seat in the small chamber again. But the party has been struggling for years in the most populous canton of Zurich. Even superfather Christoph Blocher didn’t make it into the Stöckli, and Roger Köppel also had no chance in 2019.
Significantly, SVP representatives are not considered to be promising challengers to the FDP, who are running with National Councilor Regine Sauter. Green President Balthasar Glättli or the Green Liberal Tiana Angelina Moser are repeatedly mentioned as possible candidates. With the re-election of Daniel Jositsch in Zurich, which is considered certain, everything is already dry for the SP. The race for the Zurich Council of States seats should therefore become a prestige battle in which the SVP has little to gain apart from attention.