Speculation about death of Thai princess

When the Thai King Bhumibol died of old age in 2016 after a reign spanning seven decades, not only fortune tellers, card readers and shamans predicted a difficult future for the monarchy. Many ordinary people also saw dark clouds gathering over the oldest and wealthiest institution in the country.

In fact, not only the economic problems and the criticism of the authoritarian Bangkok regime have increased in the meantime. The royal family of the Chakri dynasty, whose claim to power goes back to 1782, has been increasingly called into question for more than two years by repeated calls for reforms. Nota bene, this comes at a time when the royal family is increasingly pulling the political strings in the background and is expanding its scope of power.

Now completely unexpected news has shaken the country and the palace: King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s eldest daughter, believed to be a potential heir to the throne, has reportedly passed away. The passing suddenly shifts the somewhat complicated family tree of the dynasty into the center of interest. It also raises uncomfortable questions that are almost taboo in Thailand, which is steeped in tradition: Who will ensure reputation and continuity behind the palace walls (in the future)?

An official confirmation of the death of the only 44-year-old Princess Bajrakitiyabha is still pending. Her condition is said to have stabilized “at a certain level”, as the traditionally taciturn royal family says. According to several sources in the capital Bangkok, she can apparently only be kept alive artificially, is unconscious and has no prospect of improvement. The age and health problems in the royal circle of power are thus becoming more topical.

Never a woman on the throne

The current royal couple, who were still deeply worried and dismayed in the hospital in tracksuits after Princess Bajrakitiyabha was admitted a week ago, have now completely disappeared from the limelight. Official reason: a corona infection. But there is probably more to this retreat than that.

It is known so far that Princess Bajrakitiyabha suffered a stroke on December 14th. The cardiac arrest incident, which abruptly cut off the oxygen supply to the brain, is said to have happened outdoors while training with their dogs. According to Reuters’ former Bangkok correspondent Andrew MacGregor, who is considered a very knowledgeable source on palace affairs, clinical death occurred long before they were hooked up to oxygen machines.

The health drama about the favorite daughter is initially a tragedy for the parents, i.e. the king and his first wife and cousin, Princess Soamsawali, who has largely disappeared from public view. For the tenth regent of the dynasty (Rama X.), who is now 70 years old and married for the fourth time, the succession plan is also somewhat more delicate.

There has never been a woman on the throne in Thailand. Due to a minor amendment to the constitution dating back to the 1970s, however, this can no longer be fundamentally ruled out. This is why, for example, the king’s older sister, Princess Sirindhorn, who was popular with the people, could be included in the succession hierarchy in the first place. The childless, now 67-year-old, was passed over when the throne was inaugurated six years ago, and she does not embody the next generation anyway.

The fact that Princess Bajrakitiyabha was in the top ranks for a successor was not only due to her direct bloodline. It also has to do with the turbulent lives of their half-sisters and half-brothers: four other children of the monarch have had their royal titles revoked in the course of divorces and other upheavals. Without a major change of heart on the part of the king, these will hardly be considered for a successor in the future.

Debate about the future of the royal family

Another special feature of the Thai court is that King Rama X’s biological son, Prince Dipangkorn Rasmijoti, who was born in 2005, is currently growing up in opaque circumstances. Little is known about the fate of his mother, Srirasmi Suwadee, the monarch’s third wife, who had to leave the palace along with her relatives in 2014. The young man apparently attends schools in Germany and is not considered mature enough to be a successor.

In a highly acclaimed analysis, Andrew MacGregor also assumes that the hospitalized Princess Bajrakitiyabha, who used to hold various posts as a diplomat and ambassador, was intended to succeed the throne in the palace – at least on an interim basis or possibly as regent and closest confidant of the maturing one son of the monarch.

The new developments – apart from mourning periods set by the state – have hardly any impact on the power games in Thailand, where new elections are scheduled for 2023. The expansive political ambitions of the royal family should not be directly affected either. But new questions have been added to the known ones. The discussion about the role of the monarchy, which was initiated in the course of a protest movement in 2019, will continue.