Speech in St. Petersburg
Is Putin calling for another wave of mobilization today?
1/18/2023 8:51 am
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War speculates that Russian President Putin could announce another wave of mobilization later today. According to the experts, an official declaration of war on Ukraine is also possible. Their source is Russian military bloggers.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has his latest report expressed the suspicion that Russian President Vladimir Putin could either officially declare war on Ukraine today or call for another wave of Russian soldiers to be mobilized. The US think tank refers to Russian war advocates and military bloggers.
In those circles, both announcements would likely be welcomed. In the past, the course of the Russian invasion had repeatedly been criticized, while at the same time there had been calls for a larger one. Western experts have also been speculating for a long time that Putin could soon follow the first mobilization in September with another.
In Russia, the invasion of Ukraine, which began at the end of February 2022, is still officially known as a “military special operation”. Public use of the term “war” is punishable under criminal law. Arrests have already been made in connection with this. Lately, experts and propagandists have been talking more and more often on Russian television about a war taking place in Ukraine.
The fact is that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on Tuesday that Putin would give a speech in his hometown of St. Petersburg on Wednesday. According to the ISW, the occasion should be the 80th anniversary of the end of the siege of Leningrad (today: St. Petersburg). According to ISW experts, Putin has repeatedly used historical data in the past to make political and military announcements. It’s quite possible that he’s doing the same today – especially against the background of the conquest of Soledar in the Donetsk region.
Russian military to grow significantly
It is also certain that there will be major military reforms in Russia on the instructions of the President in the next four years. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Tuesday that the conventional Russian armed forces should be expanded by 2026. The number of military personnel is to be increased from 1.35 million to 1.5 million. According to the ISW, this is about both a longer-term war in Ukraine and a general strengthening of the military.
Specifically, according to Shoigu, two large territorial units are to be created that combine several branches of the military – the Moscow and Leningrad military districts. Independent military units are also to be set up in the Ukrainian areas annexed by Russia. In addition, an army corps is being set up in the northern Russian republic of Karelia – possibly a reaction to the planned NATO accession of the Scandinavian countries Sweden and Finland. According to Shoigu, the combat capability of the fleet, the air force and the missile forces should also be strengthened.