Inflation remained stable in Japan in August, at 3.1% year-on-year excluding fresh products as in July, according to official data published on Friday a few hours before the end of a meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). .
Bloomberg agency consensus economists expected a mini-slowdown in the rise in consumer prices, to 3% excluding fresh products.
Also excluding energy, the increase in prices was more marked (4.3%), again unchanged growth compared to July.
Inflation in Japan was first driven in 2022 by the surge in energy prices following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. But since the start of this year, other expenditure items have fueled it, such as spending on culture and leisure in August.
The tenacity of inflation complicates the situation for the BoJ, which, unlike the major Western banks, has until now maintained its ultra-accommodating monetary policy, preferring to wait until it is certain that inflation in Japan will be able to remain stable. stable around its target of 2%.
The institution nevertheless made marginal adjustments last December and then in July this year, releasing a little ballast on its tight control of ten-year Japanese bond yields intended to keep them very low.
And its governor Kazuo Ueda stirred up trouble earlier this month by telling a Japanese newspaper that ending the BoJ’s negative policy rate, in place since 2016, was a possible option if the institution became confident in the stable growth of consumer prices and wages.
Mr. Ueda then estimated that the BoJ could have enough elements “by the end of the year” to assess the trajectory of wages in Japan, which are currently struggling to keep pace with inflation.
However, many analysts do not believe in a change of course by the BoJ for a long time to come, and have suspected that Mr. Ueda’s hidden objective with his remarks was rather to support the yen.
Because the Japanese currency is in full decline against the dollar, notably under the effect of the constantly growing gap between the drastic monetary tightening carried out in the United States and the quasi status quo in Japan.
The great weakness of the yen also complicates the BoJ’s affairs, because it undermines the purchasing power of Japanese households, and therefore economic growth, which is supposed to form a virtuous circle with the rise in prices and wages.