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The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are the most important of all: 13 million eligible voters live here, a fifth of the entire Federal Republic. The CDU and SPD have alternated in power for 20 years. There’s a lot to gain here – and a lot to lose.
And the CDU wins.
The usual rules do not apply
Neither the incumbent CDU Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst nor his challenger Thomas Kutschaty from the SPD are popular enough to serve as draft horses in the election campaign. State elections are personal elections. But this year the usual rules didn’t apply anyway.
The election campaign was not determined by regional issues such as schools and internal security, but by Russia’s war in Ukraine. In North Rhine-Westphalia in particular, which is characterized by energy-intensive steel and chemical industries, dependence on Russian gas is proving particularly fatal.
Mood barometer for Berlin
As is well known, the state government can have little influence on geopolitical upheavals, that is a matter for the federal government. The parties in North Rhine-Westphalia therefore logically rely on prominent politicians from Berlin. This state election became a mood barometer for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the opposition leader Friedrich Merz.
Scholz would actually have an advantage, because in times of war and crisis, the population often backs the government. Most recently, this was easy to observe during the corona pandemic, when the polls for the CDU and Chancellor Merkel shot up to unprecedented heights. The opposite is happening at Scholz.
Scholz more unpopular than ever
The driving force of the traffic light coalition in Berlin is not his SPD, but the Greens with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. Thanks to them, the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia achieved a record result and will now be able to appoint the prime minister as kingmaker.
The chancellor, however, is under pressure. One of his SPD ministers has already had to resign, and a second, Defense Minister Lambrecht, has a possible favoritism scandal on her hands. Olaf Scholz himself is more unpopular than ever (and more unpopular than Merkel has ever been in 16 years). Two thirds of Germans are dissatisfied with their work and even more so with their communication.
Scholz, a “procrastinator”?
Following impulses or showing empathy is not his thing. And he takes his time for major political decisions. Opposition leader and CDU leader Friedrich Merz accused Scholz of “anxious hesitation” especially in his Russia policy and cleverly staged a counter-offer.
It was Merz who traveled to Ukraine at the beginning of May and personally expressed German solidarity to President Selenski. Since he is not a member of the government and could not actually do anything, the trip to Kyiv was blamed on him for the election campaign. He only took on the role of opposition leader.
new trend
After 16 years in power, the CDU was punished with its worst result ever in the federal elections last autumn. But now a new trend seems to be emerging, from which Hendrik Wüst in NRW also benefited: the CDU is recovering, the SPD is losing.
If elections had taken place not only in North Rhine-Westphalia but throughout Germany, the chancellor would no longer be called Olaf Scholz.