The “States General” of the Republicans are held on Saturday at the Cirque d’Hiver in Paris. The right wants to take advantage of this to revive itself against the executive.
By MB with AFP
© QUENTIN VEUILLET / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP
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Ihe Republicans are holding their “states general” in Paris on Saturday to revive the right, still not ready for an alliance with the majority despite rumors of a reshuffle. This great raout, organized at the Cirque d’Hiver, aims to “make a lucid inventory” of the right, still weakened by its defeats but which is already aiming for 2027, explained the president of LR Éric Ciotti to the Parisian.
The event, in which Xavier Bertrand must participate but not Laurent Wauquiez or Valérie Pécresse, is intended to be brief – speech by Éric Ciotti then by the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher in the morning, before round tables in the afternoon. Several months of thematic work will follow, with a red thread: “to straighten out a sinking France” and to restore “credibility to the Republican right by completely rebuilding it around strong values and ideas”.
Establishing the credibility of the Republicans for 2027
The Republicans indeed want to establish their credibility with a view to 2027, in the face of an executive judged to be insufficient on authority and the economy. They were able to test this strategy around immigration, a marker subject for the right, on which they tabled two bills and are intransigent in imposing their conditions on the executive. From this perspective, the idea of a government agreement is less and less attractive. “We are not the ones who are going to get on the Titanic”, swept the boss of senators Olivier Marleix on Thursday. “The conditions are not met”, assured the day before his Senate counterpart Bruno Retailleau.
READ ALSOBruno Retailleau: “Clearly, we are not ready to govern”
Deciding on the choice of an alliance
The idea of an alliance, recurring for a year, has regained strength in recent weeks with rumors of a reshuffle. An agreement would give the executive the votes it lacks in the National Assembly. But “individual poaching does not bring 40 deputies”, the number necessary to reach an absolute majority, slice an LR deputy. Because all the difficulty is to find a enough consensual personality on the right to involve all the deputies. Gérard Larcher, who looks like a sage on the right, kicks in touch: “I don’t believe at all in an agreement around a name without there being an overall agreement. »
The other names mentioned for a time are either quite far from the heart of the reactor, or straight out of LR. “The sidelines are tight,” summarizes a member of the “shadow cabinet” set up by LR, according to whom an agreement could quickly prove counterproductive on the left wing of Macronie: “If they pass a deal with us, they lose between 15 and 23 on the other side. »
Placing a Republican in Matignon
For this elected official, “the key is a right-wing Prime Minister, but above all that he is the one who makes up the government team” with, to reflect the balance of power in Parliament, about “a quarter of the ministries”. “Isn’t that contradictory with the personality of the President of the Republic? he wonders. The hypothesis does not seem to be on the carpet, especially since Eric Ciotti’s call to Emmanuel Macron to receive the heads of LR on the subject of immigration has so far remained a dead letter. The appointment of a Republican to Matignon is also for Éric Ciotti “political fiction”.
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The scenario of a dissolution
An LR executive believes that, in this context, “the only possible solution would be dissolution”. A high-risk scenario, even if LR wants to believe that its local roots would allow it to maintain its positions. “The RN would win between 30 and 40 deputies, the majority would lose 30 to 40 and LR would be more or less stable. The Nupes would lose a little, ”said a party executive. But we would then find ourselves “in a degraded situation, which would make an alliance with Macron impossible”, he adds.
READ ALSOEXCLUSIVE. Laurent Wauquiez, the big interviewOn this point many seem to agree: the more time passes, the more difficult it will be to find an alliance. “What is the interest for us at the end of 2024-beginning of 2025 of putting ourselves in a Macron government? asks a deputy.