Stay or go?: Bundeswehr mission in Mali at a crossroads

stay or go
Bundeswehr operation in Mali at the crossroads

France will soon decide on its troops in West African Mali. While Paris is increasingly playing the role of “bad guy” in the country, German soldiers still enjoy a good reputation. Experts believe that a separate strategy including an exit plan is required.

Around five months after the failure in Afghanistan, the military operation in West African Mali is also steering into an extremely difficult situation: the EU partner France is hated in some parts of the country, the government came to power with a coup, and Russian mercenaries are new and already successful partner of the Malian army in the fight against terrorism. The federal government must decide whether the Bundeswehr should leave the field, seek a different approach to stabilization with allies, or even position itself more robustly. The warning: A vacuum could give Islamist terrorist groups more space or call Russia even more onto the scene. Large refugee movements to Europe are also feared.

The CDU defense politician Henning Otte advocates not backing down, especially not in the case of the UN mission Minusma, which was set up with German participation. Otte, who is deputy chairman of the Defense Committee in the German Bundestag, should rather use Tiger attack helicopters and additional reconnaissance equipment to protect German soldiers. The Bundeswehr is present in Mali with more than 1,300 men and women and has two mandates that expire on May 31. In the EU training mission EUTM, the Malian armed forces are being trained to – ideally – ensure security themselves. The larger UN mission Minusma is intended to stabilize the country, the north of which fell temporarily into the hands of Islamist and other rebel groups in 2012.

The former colonial power France quickly intervened. However, their anti-terrorist missions “Barkhane” and “Takuba” could not prevent the violence from escalating. One accusation from Mali is that France’s actions have fueled conflicts. Another: Paris is disregarding the country’s sovereignty, for example by involving Danish special forces in the fight against terrorism without them having a stationing agreement with the Malian government. Meanwhile, the French ambassador and the Danes have been thrown out. For the coming days, France has announced a fundamental decision on its own deployment.

After a military coup: Colonel as a beacon of hope

The failure of a corrupt government unwilling to reform paved the way for a coup last year by Colonel Assimi Goita, now Mali’s interim president. He is not democratically legitimized, but would have a good chance in quick elections, which not only Germany is demanding. Civil society in Mali also sees in him a beacon of hope who can bring the increasingly deteriorating security situation back on track. Goita was in Germany as an officer for training in 2008 and 2016 without any closer contacts being maintained with him. However, the fact that Russian mercenaries entered the country under him drew sharp criticism from the West.

However, the Western military can now also observe how Russian and Malian soldiers are fighting back Islamist terrorists shoulder to shoulder, while the EU is focusing on “training”, i.e. training and equipment aid with the aim of enabling them to fight independently. The concept seems coherent on paper. However, it has already failed twice in other formats on a large scale. In 2014, for example, the Iraqi army, which had been heavily armed by the USA, laid down its arms in front of IS terrorists and sought salvation by fleeing. And last year, the Afghan army surrendered unexpectedly quickly and without a fight to the militant Islamist Taliban.

For 18 months, coups and coup attempts in West Africa and the Sahel region have come one after the other. First it was Mali, then Chad, Mali again, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Guinea-Bissau. The military are in power in more and more countries in the region. Political analysts say Mali has inspired many in the region with two successful coups in nine months. In August 2020, Malian soldiers toppled President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, a close friend of France. In May, the military then also deposed the civilian interim president.

Fight against Al Qaeda and IS

Above all, the military rulers under Goita want to get the constantly deteriorating security situation in the north and center of the country under control. Numerous militias there, some of whom have sworn allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) or the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, regularly carry out attacks and are working to build a parallel state. Poverty, drought and a weak state accused of deep corruption and inability to act are playing into the hands of the jihadists. An election date originally scheduled for late February has been put on hold for five years. The West African confederation of states Ecowas protested with a trade embargo and the freeze of the national budget. The EU also imposed sanctions. But the junta is initially stubborn.

The international community is torn between principles and pragmatism, says Mathieu Pellerin, an analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) research institute. On the one hand, one must push for a return to the constitutional order. On the other hand, a constructive dialogue is necessary in order not to endanger one’s own security strategy in the country, according to Pellerin. Instead of opposing the junta, support has grown within the populace – who suffer most from the sanctions.

“The sanctions have enraged many Malians and aroused a patriotism that benefits the caretaker government,” said Ornella Moderan, Sahel expert at the African Institute for Security Studies (ISS). The international community should insist less on an election date and instead seek dialogue. France in particular is now considered a “bad guy” in Mali. In contrast, Germany enjoys a good reputation, says Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. But the risk of being drawn into the verbal exchange as an ally of France is high. During street protests against the sanctions, there have already been posters saying “Death to France and its allies,” which Laessing says is not a good sign. “If elections were to take place now, the military would have a good chance of being elected,” said Laessing. It is important that Germany develops a clear, own Sahel strategy, including an exit scenario.

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