Et was an election that took place against a background of great fears. This is shown by the surveys carried out by Infratest Dimap and the Wahlen research group in Lower Saxony.
Three quarters of the voters state that they are already feeling a loss of prosperity and expect an impending economic crisis. 60 percent complain about the price increase, 67 percent fear the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
The economic prospects have darkened massively compared to the 2017 election: 80 percent rated it positively at the time, today the majority is negative at 54 percent. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Stephan Weil was re-elected, the Greens, who are co-governing in Berlin, achieved their best result so far in Lower Saxony – and the CDU, as the federal opposition, was unable to benefit in Hanover. How is that possible?
A lot has to do with Stephan Weil. Of course, there is the father of the country bonus that the Social Democrat, who has been in power for almost ten years, bestows on his party. With a personal approval rating of 53 percent, Weil is doing well, but is far from what the Green Winfried Kretschmann did in the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021 (71 percent) or, for example, the CDU man Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein in spring this year (75 percent).
On the one hand, the Hanoverian social democrat Weil may have conveyed stability, which is definitely decisive in crises; on the other hand, in his own unique way, he has taken advantage of the fact that his party participates in government. Weil announced his own relief program very early on, which he definitely wanted to see as a model for the federal government.
As a result, he bullied Berlin to do the same, to do more for entrepreneurs and private individuals. As a member of the Chancellor’s Party, he received special attention in the media, but he is also likely to have received more attention in government circles than a Christian Democratic prime minister, for example. Wherever possible, Weil also praised the traffic light coalition. Everything with a sense of proportion. There was an impression of inner distance to the official line – and an internal party opposition. wait, you know that? Exactly, the CSU has already won a number of elections: close enough to power in the federal government to benefit from it, far enough away to make a name for itself.
This is reflected in the fact that every second SPD voter in Lower Saxony considers the course in the federal government to be too hesitant, even if a majority supports the Chancellor’s course in principle. 80 percent of voters in Lower Saxony think that Olaf Scholz should decide more quickly, 68 percent would like more help to people who really need it. Only 43 percent are satisfied with the federal government, while 53 percent are satisfied with the state government. The SPD in Lower Saxony has broken away from the federal government.
Disputes cleared
Every second SPD voter is also concerned about the energy supply in winter, but feels taken away from Weil when it comes to the crucial issue of energy. Weil cleared up controversial issues before the election, which is also known from the CSU (think of the distance rules for wind turbines or the underground cabling for power lines). In Lower Saxony, a clear majority would have supported the continued operation of the Emsland nuclear power plant, but they preferred not to risk possible resistance in the red-green milieu.