by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to be on a cautious note on Friday in a session marked by the publication of numerous macroeconomic indicators, while the strength of the dollar following decisions taken by central banks in Europe weighs on assets .
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should gain 0.01% at the opening. The Dax in Frankfurt could also advance 0.01%, while the FTSE 100 in London is expected to gain 0.05%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.06%.
Among the major indicators on today’s agenda are retail sales in Great Britain, activity indices in Europe and the United States, as well as statistics on the American real estate market.
This data is essential for investors to support the hypothesis of an economic recovery in Europe and a soft landing in the United States while several major central banks have started or are about to start their easing cycle. monetary.
European stock exchanges welcomed on Thursday the continuation of the reduction in key rates in Switzerland and the prospect of a reduction in the cost of credit in Great Britain in August in view of the remarks made by the governor of the Bank of England after the status quo on rates decided immediately.
Nomura analysts estimate that an initial rate cut of 25 basis points from the BoE should take place on August 1, followed by a quarterly cut until the bank’s main policy rate falls to 3.50% at the start of 2026.
For today’s session, however, caution should prevail, the US dollar having reached a new eight-week high against the yen and five weeks against the pound sterling, the patient approach of the US Federal Reserve (Fed ) in terms of reducing key rates contrasting with that of other central banks.
Neel Kashkari, a Fed official, also said Thursday that it would take a year or two to bring inflation back to 2% in a context of still too high wage growth.
Profit taking is also expected as the S&P 500 index reached the symbolic bar of 5,500 points on Thursday for the first time, while the Nasdaq recorded a record of more than 17,936 points.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended in disorganized order on Thursday, notably with a decline in Nvidia.
The Dow Jones index gained 0.8% to 39,134.76 points, while the broader S&P-500 lost 0.3% to 5,473.17 points and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8% to 17,721. 587 points.
Nvidia, which became the most valuable company in the world on the stock market on Tuesday, erased the gains made earlier in the session.
The energy and utilities sectors advanced, while the technology sector declined.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell by 0.03% to 38,644.41 points, penalized by stocks linked to semiconductors such as Advantest (-1.27%), Tokyo Electron (-0.17%). or TDK(-2.09%). The broader Topix, however, gained 0.13%, to 2,729.09 points.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) lost 0.6%, in the wake of the decline in technology stocks after a mixed session on Wall Street on Thursday. The index is, however, expected to record a weekly gain of 1% after reaching its highest level since April 2022 on Wednesday.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell by 0.53% and the CSI 300 lost 0.71%, in a context of strong capital outflows, strength of the dollar and decline in technology stocks.
About 33 billion yuan (4.23 billion euros) left mainland China this month via the “Northbound” flow of the Stock Connect program, after four months of net inflows, while on the “Southbound” flow 129 billion yuan has flowed from mainland China to Hong Kong since the start of the year.
EXCHANGES/RATES
The dollar index, which measures the fluctuations of the American currency against a basket of international currencies, is at more than 105 points and is heading towards a weekly gain, the third in a row.
The yen plunged to 159 per dollar on Friday, while the euro stood at 1.0718 dollars (+0.17%), the pound sterling at 1.2661 dollars (+0.05%) and the franc Swiss at 0.8907 dollars (-0.04%).
The Swiss National Bank made a second rate cut on Thursday, while the Bank of England suggested it would begin its monetary easing cycle in August. Fed officials, meanwhile, left monetary policy unchanged at the June meeting and reduced their rate cut projections for this year.
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds is stable at 4.2613%, after an increase of 3.5 basis points on Thursday.
OIL
The oil market varied little on Friday but should record a second week in the green against a backdrop of signs of an improvement in demand and a drop in crude stocks in the United States.
Brent fell by 0.07% to $85.65 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) by 0.06% to $81.24.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Blandine Hénault)
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