by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise cautiously on Monday in the absence of major economic indicators, the day being also a public holiday for the Christian festival of Pentecost even if it is not idle on the financial markets .
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should gain 0.10% at opening. The Dax in Frankfurt could advance 0.14%, while the FTSE 100 in London should gain 0.11%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.16%.
The positive trend should follow in the wake of Asian markets which are at a two-year high, driven in particular by the most extensive measures taken by China to deal with its crisis in the real estate sector.
Due to Pentecost, trade should be weak in Europe while the last sessions benefited from the slowdown in inflation in the United States, paving the way for an upcoming rate cut by the American Federal Reserve (Fed).
Several central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic, like Isabel Schnabel in the eurozone, are now warning against excessive optimism about the monetary easing anticipated by the markets.
Michelle Bowman of the Fed even argues that the central bank could raise rates if necessary, particularly if inflation does not slow sufficiently.
In terms of macroeconomic indicators, no major meeting is on today’s agenda, with investors mainly awaiting PMI data on activity in the main economies during the week.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended in disarray on Friday, catching its breath a little while the Dow Jones set a record close above 40,000 points.
The Dow Jones index gained 0.3%, or 134.21 points, to 40,003.59 points.
The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 6.17 points, or 0.1% to 5,303.27 points.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 12.355 points, or 0.1%, to 16,685.966 points.
“Today is a digestion day: We just set records and now we’re into a fourth straight week of gains, and the market seems to be taking a break,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer. at Truist Advisory Services.
In values, AMD gained 1.13%, Microsoft having announced its intention to offer its customers chips intended for artificial intelligence designed by the Californian group.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index advanced 0.73% to 39,069.68 points, exceeding the symbolic threshold of 39,000 points for the first time since April, against a backdrop of a climate of optimism on Wall Street. The broader Topix gained 0.82% to 2,768.04 points.
“Tech” stocks like Shin-Etsu Chemical (+4.16%) and Tokyo Electron (+0.69%) were sought after.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) gained 0.25%, to a two-year high, thanks in particular to the good performance of stocks in Australia and South Korea.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite gained 0.52% and the CSI 300 increased by 0.37%, investors having welcomed the “historic” measures taken by Beijing to restore the real estate sector, the main obstacle to the growth of the world’s second largest economy. The Chinese government will thus authorize local authorities to buy certain apartments and ease access to real estate loans, while the central bank will set up an additional financing facility of 1,000 billion yuan (126.8 billion euros) .
VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:
EXCHANGES/RATES
The dollar is practically stable (-0.05%) against a basket of reference currencies.
The euro gains 0.11%, to 1.0882 dollars, consolidating its peak of almost two months reached on Friday at 1.0895 dollars.
The pound sterling is trading at 1.2702 dollars (+0.02%).
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds varies little, at 4.4257%, after a decline of 8.4 points last week.
The yield on the German Bund of the same maturity rises around three basis points, to 2.539%, after an increase of almost seven points on Friday.
OIL
The oil market is rising due to geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and the announcement of the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi, who died in a helicopter accident on Sunday in thick fog in a mountainous area.
Brent rose 0.42% to $84.33 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.26% to $80.27.
METALS
Gold prices reached a historic high on Monday as the slowdown in inflation in the United States reinforced expectations for a first cut in key rates in the United States.
Around 0630 GMT, spot gold was up 1.07% at $2,440.82 an ounce, a record high.
Silver, which advanced 0.85% to $31.75, for its part reached its highest level in 11 years, while platinum reached a peak since May 12, 2023.
(Written by Claude Chendjou)
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