PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to be close to balance on Tuesday at the opening after a series of indicators in China reflecting a slowdown in activity at the end of last year, although investors hope on a strong economic recovery of the country remains high.
Futures contracts give a stable opening for the Paris CAC 40, down 0.1% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.02% for the FTSE in London and 0.14% for the EuroStoxx 50.
Growth in China’s gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 2.9% year on year over the last three months of 2022, official statistics showed, a pace higher than the Reuters consensus, however. And for 2022 as a whole, China’s GDP will grow by 3.0%, which marks one of the lowest growth rates since 1976.
At the same time, Chinese industrial production came in above expectations, at +1.3% year on year in December, and the decline in retail sales slowed more than expected, to 1.8%.
“We can say that the COVID-hit economy bottomed out in the fourth quarter and is on the road to recovery, although not yet strong,” Toru Nishihama commented. , Chief Economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
In the rest of the macroeconomic agenda, the markets took note of the confirmation of German inflation, up 9.6% over one year in December. They will follow later the publication of the ZEW Institute’s German Investor Sentiment Index.
In the United States, the only important indicator of the day will be the “Empire State” activity index, expected at 1:30 p.m. GMT, but the main event of the week will be the publication of monthly retail sales figures on Wednesday.
VALUES TO FOLLOW:
AT WALL STREET
Wall Street was closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day and futures are signaling a recovery in the red, between 0.2% and 0.59%, for a session that will be driven mainly by results from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.
On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at their highest level in a month, with shares of JPMorgan Chase (+2.52%) and other major banks rising after the publication of their quarterly accounts.
IN ASIA
After losing 2.4% over the previous two sessions, the Nikkei recovered 1.23%, benefiting from a slight decline in the yen on the eve of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcements.
The Japanese currency recorded a peak of more than seven months on Monday, driven by speculation about a change in the issuing institution’s monetary policy.
In China, stock markets ended with little change after the release of several headline statistics and the announcement of the country’s first population decline since 1961.
The CSI 300 index of large caps in mainland China ended in equilibrium, the SSE Composite of Shanghai fell 0.1%.
EXCHANGES/RATES
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar gained 0.24% against a basket of reference currencies, while the euro was little changed, at 1.0816 dollars.
On the bond side, the yield of ten-year US Treasuries took more than three basis points to 3.5531% after having already climbed sharply during the last session.
Some investors are questioning the market’s assumption that the Federal Reserve will lower rates later this year after prices fell in December.
The yield on the ten-year German government bond was little changed in early trading, at 2.198%.
OIL
The oil market is evolving in disorganized order, torn between one of the weakest economic growths recorded in China in nearly 50 years and the hope of a recovery in demand in the country with the end of the “zero COVID” policy. “.
Brent gained 0.14% to $84.58 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) lost 0.81% to $79.21.
(Laetitia Volga, edited by Kate Entringer and Blandine Hénault)