The coming week is likely to cause a lot of uncertainty on the stock exchanges in view of the rise in new corona infections in Europe. Stock market professionals admonish caution, but they remain optimistic.
At the end of the summer vacation in other federal states, the German stock market is heading into more difficult waters. The number of new infections with the coronavirus is rising, fears of restrictions are growing, and by the end of the reporting season, corporate balance sheets will no longer generate as many buying impulses. In addition, the tussle between Democrats and Republicans over another Corona aid package continues in the USA.
Finally, the hope that the worst has been overcome economically and that the pandemic can also be kept in check has spurred the prices, said Claudia Windt, an analyst at Helaba. That is "always enough for a summer break on the stock exchanges. However, cleaning thunderstorms cannot be ruled out."
The leading German index closed on Friday at a discount of 0.71 percent to 12,901 points. The round 13,000 point mark, which he crossed again on Tuesday for the first time in three weeks, is now a little further off. From a weekly perspective, however, the balance is positive with a price increase of around 1.8 percent. In the USA, too, the records have now fallen again. Some experts see this as a reason to be more cautious: "Overall, in the wake of the share price levels recently reached on the stock markets, we are currently expecting corresponding consolidation tendencies," write the analysts at Bank Oddo BHF.
Real pessimism looks different, but says market analyst Robert Halver from Baader Bank. The condition on the markets is stable. From a technical chart point of view, the recovery should therefore continue, according to Halver, provided the Dax closes sustainably above the barrier of 13,101 points. Expert Andreas Büchler from the stock market statistics magazine Index-Radar also sees the development in the stock market barometer as positive in the short term. "However, buyers should no longer have access at any price, which should slow down further profits."
USA in focus
The signs of fatigue that have afflicted the German stock market are likely to be due not least to the high level of dynamism with which prices have recovered from their lows since the Corona crash since mid-March. From there it went up by around 60 percent to the interim high in mid-July at just under 13,314 points.
The election campaign in the USA is likely to provide a topic of conversation in the dealers' chat programs: The Democrats will begin their nomination party conference on Monday. "Now it's up to Joe Biden – he has to land with the whole line," said Robert Greil, chief strategist at the private bank Merck Finck. In polls, Biden is ahead of incumbent Donald Trump. The outcome of the congressional elections is also decisive for the markets, Greil said: "Targeted investments on a large scale can only be made possible by a unified government – regardless of whether under Biden or Trump. That would mean a tailwind for Wall Street, albeit depending on the situation Exit in different areas. "
Wirecard is thrown out of the Dax
The reporting season for the second quarter is now almost over, in Germany only latecomers from the second row present their figures. These include Zooplus, Tele Columbus and CTS Eventim. The exit restrictions and contact bans in the fight against the corona pandemic had a particular impact in the second quarter. Still, many companies did better than expected.
The economic data that will be published on Friday are likely to be more exciting: The Markit Institute will present the purchasing managers' indices for industry in August. "This is one of the first indicators for investors of how the economy is doing, so it will be interesting to see if the recent momentum continues," said Jonathan Jayarajan, analyst at Deutsche Bank.
Otherwise, on the data side, the weekly US initial jobless claims will once again be the focus on Thursday. The situation on the labor market had recently relaxed more than expected, but the number of unemployed due to the corona crisis in the United States is still at a high level. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve should also be of interest on Wednesday, followed by the minutes of the European Central Bank on Thursday.
In addition, one of the biggest crime stories in the Dax ends on Friday: the scandal-ridden, insolvent payment processor Wirecard is leaving the first league. Delivery Hero is a possible successor. The exchange wants to give details on Wednesday. This makes Wirecard history on the stock exchange. It continues, however, on television: The fraud scandal is filmed and shown on the TVNOW streaming service of Mediengruppe RTL Deutschland. The 90-minute docu-drama will be shown in the first quarter of 2021.
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