Stock market outlook: Dax remains under pressure

The corona pandemic will also be the focus of attention on the German stock market in the coming week. The approaching US election is also a topic of conversation. Economic data can also provide impetus.

A quick recovery of the stock exchanges from their recent price losses is not in sight, according to experts. At the moment there is constant fear that rising virus infections will result in additional restrictions, says analyst Jochen Stanzl from the online broker CMC Markets. "The second wave with an impending second lockdown is the disruptive fire that could nip in the bud the economic recovery so longed for by investors."

Dax 12,908.99

A renewed recession is not to be feared, emphasizes Commerzbank analyst Christoph Weil. "The tightening of the corona restrictions is primarily affecting industries such as tourism, which are already largely on the ground. In contrast to the first wave of infections, the production and demand of other goods are unlikely to be affected." In the old week, however, the Dax fell by a good two percent.

Another factor of uncertainty is the approaching US presidential election, said portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from investment advisor QC Partners. This can be seen in futures contracts. "In the US Nasdaq 100 technology index, the price differences between options with a term of one week that expire before the election and options with a term of one month that only expire after the election are greater than ever, even before Trump's election In 2016 this premium was only half as high. " US President Donald Trump lags behind his challenger Joe Biden in polls. Some observers point out, however, that Trump won in 2016 under similar circumstances.

In addition, numerous company balance sheets keep investors on their toes. Netflix, Intel and L'Oreal, among others, present figures. In the case of European companies, the bottom line is that profits will decrease by 40 percent, predicts Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for private and corporate customers at Deutsche Bank. "That would be an improvement compared to the second quarter, when the minus was around 50 percent." However, the outlook will be decisive for the price reactions. Here he expects a positive keynote.

Focus on economic data

In terms of economic data, investors are focusing on the economic report of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the so-called Beige Book. From this they hope to draw conclusions about monetary policy. The US leading indicators will follow on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the GfK index provides information on the buying mood of German consumers. The European consumer confidence index follows a few hours later. Here experts predict a decline to minus 15 from minus 13.9 points.

At the end of the new week, the mood barometer of the European purchasing managers follows. Because of the increasing corona infections, according to stock market operators, a further deterioration must be expected in the service sector, while the index for the manufacturing sector will maintain itself well above the 50 point mark, which signals growth.

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