by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to fall and European stocks are in the red mid-session on Friday, risk aversion being fueled by the gloomy economic forecasts of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to which in addition, mixed macroeconomic indicators in Europe take precedence over the good news from China.
Futures on New York indices signal an opening on Wall Street down 0.76% for the Dow Jones, 0.91% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and 1.08% for the Nasdaq.
In Paris, the CAC 40 fell 1.19% to 6,084.81 around 12:05 GMT. In Frankfurt, the Dax lost 1.61% and in London, the FTSE lost 0.08%.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index contracted by 0.99%, the Eurozone EuroStoxx 50 by 1.13% and the Stoxx 600 by 1.01%.
Over the week as a whole, the Paris index is currently down 2.07% and the pan-European Stoxx 600 2.35%.
The IMF on Thursday evening said it expects a deeper economic slowdown in the third quarter, while the World Bank has estimated that the simultaneous rise in central bank interest rates in the face of persistent inflation could favor a global recession. next year.
Inflation in the euro zone was confirmed on Friday at 9.1% over one year in August, an unprecedented level since the creation of the single currency.
In Britain, fears of a recession also grew with the Friday release of the retail sales statistic, which showed a sharper-than-expected decline in August of 1.6%, the highest since December 2021. .
In this context, the announcement of a 4.2% increase in production and 5.4% in retail sales in China in August took a back seat, despite figures that exceeded expectations.
WALL STREET VALUES TO FOLLOW
In addition to macroeconomic concerns, there are now fears about corporate results since the American parcel delivery and logistics giant Fedex canceled its annual financial forecasts on Thursday, citing a marked deterioration in the economy.
FedEx shares plunged nearly 20% ahead of the market, while UPS, XPO Logistics and Amazon fell 7% to 11%.
VALUES IN EUROPE
In the wake of Fedex’s announcement, the European courier and logistics sector is suffering: Deutsche Post loses 4.6%, Royal Mail 10.12%, Kuehne & Nagel 2.64% and DSV Panalpina 5.94 %.
Almost all the sectors of the Stoxx 600 are in the red, the most marked decline being on the asset side of the industrial securities compartment, the index of which fell by 2.23%.
In other individual values, Uniper fell by 6.48%, a government project, consulted by Reuters, showing that the German group in difficulty should not receive aid before October 31.
Air France-KLM dropped 4.07% with a 1.83% decline in the tourism and leisure sector while air traffic in Europe was severely disrupted this Friday by a strike by air traffic controllers in France. The ADP group sells 3.22%. The low-cost company easyJet, which canceled 76 flights today, fell by 2.81%.
In Italy, Banca Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena lost 4.14% after shareholders approved a capital increase project.
On the upside, Sanofi advances by 0.64% after a recommendation from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to Beyfortus developed in partnership with AstraZeneca (+ 1.97%).
RATE
Bond yields in Europe are up sharply: that of the two-year German Bund, which hit a peak in session since 2011 at 1.594%, is displayed at midday at 1.597% (+9.5 points), while the ten-year traded at 1.779% (+4.6 points) after a peak in session at 1.817%, the highest since mid-June.
European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Friday that the Frankfurt institution will have to continue raising interest rates because the economic slowdown or a possible recession in the eurozone will not be enough to achieve a containment. of inflation.
In the United States, yields on ten-year and two-year Treasury bills are almost stable at 3.459% and 3.886% respectively.
CHANGES
The dollar, up 0.18% against other major currencies, is heading for another week of gains, benefiting from the prospect of another sharp hike in US rates on Wednesday.
The euro, down 0.4% to 0.9959 dollars, is still below parity with the greenback.
The pound sterling fell to a new low of 37 years against the American currency, at 1.1351 dollar.
OIL
Oil prices are rising but are expected to fall for the third consecutive week due to fears of a drop in demand linked to the rise in interest rates which could precipitate the global economy into recession.
Brent rose 1.22% to 91.95 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.94% to 85.90 dollars.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)