Strong US jobs will encourage the Fed to raise rates


390,000 jobs were created in May, better than expected. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.6%.

The US economy is holding up well against the headwinds for the time being. The Federal Reserve’s new determination to raise its key rate sharply is supported by the latest signals given by the labor market.

Net job creation in May in the United States once again exceeded forecasts. 390,000 new jobs were created last month. In addition, the April estimate is revised favorably to 436,000 jobs, not 428,000. For its part, the unemployment rate in May is unchanged at 3.6%.

Other labor market measures released this week also showed that the number of unfilled vacancies remained abnormally high, at 11.4 million in April. For every unemployed person in the United States, there are almost two job openings. If we add to this picture, signs of acceleration in manufacturing activity in May, we can conclude that the Federal Reserve will not be afraid to break the momentum of the economy by persevering with its rate hikes. Jerome Powell and his colleagues, motivated to fight the highest inflation in 40 years, should not hesitate to raise their main policy rate by 0.5% on June 15 and again on July 27, during their regular meetings. monetary committee.

There is also a glimmer of hope on the inflation front. The increase in average hourly earnings in May is marking time. We are falling to an annual rate of 5.2%, against 5.5% in April. The fear of a contagion of inflation via increases in labor costs is down a notch.



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