Sunday 13th December 2020
Subdued mood
Stockbrokers give up year-end rally
In view of the corona situation, the buying mood of investors is noticeably dwindling: It is not only the impending hard lockdown that troubles investors. The possible "no deal" Brexit, the strong euro and the dispute in the USA over corona aid are also causing a lot of nervousness.
Experts believe that the chances of a Christmas rally are dwindling. After all, due to the increasing number of corona infections, there is a risk of a drastic tightening of the pandemic restrictions in Germany before the festival, says market analyst Milan Cutkovic from the brokerage company Axi.
"The situation is also getting worse in other European countries. Despite significant advances in corona vaccines, it is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to ignore the here and now."
Stock marketers see the continued strength of the euro as a further obstacle on the way to price gains. At more than $ 1.21, the rate of the common currency is at the level of two and a half years ago, reducing the competitiveness of European goods on the world market. Against this background, the Dax lost around one percent in the old week.
Dispute over Brexit and US economic aid
Investors are also worried about the tug-of-war over a trade deal between the UK and the EU. "The negotiations could lead to success at the very last second, but that is anything but certain," warns analyst Jochen Stanzl from the online broker CMC Markets. "Investors should prepare for a dirty, untreated Brexit that will cripple growth at both UK and European levels."
In the dispute over further government economic aid in the USA, no breakthrough is in sight. "Progress and setbacks follow one another with regularity," says portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from the investment advisor QC Partners. "Investors have got used to it now. And despite everything, they still believe in an aid package."
No Christmas presents from the Fed
For this very reason, the US central bank will not announce any new cash injections in the new week, says Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner. "For the renewed impetus for the economic recovery, one relies on the financial policy." The Fed also sees the current economic weakness as temporary. With the warmer spring weather and the beginning of the corona vaccinations, the end of the pandemic is getting closer.
In terms of economic data, investors turn their attention to the US retail sales on Wednesday. Private consumption is considered to be the mainstay of the world's largest economy. That will follow on Thursday Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's Economic Barometer and on Friday the US leading indicators.
This side of the Atlantic is the Ifo index on Friday information about the mood on the German executive floors. They are two days earlier German and European purchasing manager indices on the schedule. They are likely to indicate that the previous pandemic restrictions will have less of an impact on the economy than in the spring, forecast stockbrokers.
Regardless of this, futures on indices as well as options on indices and individual stocks expire at the end of the week. On this date, stock prices usually fluctuate sharply because investors want to move the prices of the securities on which they hold derivatives in a direction that is favorable to them.
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