Sudan faces the risk of implosion

The multiplication of fronts which have opposed, since 2023, the regular army of Al-Bourhane and the paramilitary unit of “Hemetti”known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is pushing the country into a war of attrition. According to a US estimate, 150,000 people died during the conflict, 11 million people were forced to leave their homes and 2.3 million fled to neighboring countries.

This war brings in its wake numerous armed groups who pledge allegiance to one side or the other and tens of thousands of civilians. The two protagonists receive aid from foreign countries, fueling this conflict with humanitarian consequences dramatic. While Egypt and Saudi Arabia support the official army, the RSF receive support from the United Arab Emirates and Russia.

Khartoum

Al-Geneina

Kassala

Nyala

El Obeid

El-Fasher

Jebel Amer

Amdjarass

Abu-Hamad

Abu Amama

Al-Ibediyya

Port Sudan

Airbase
from Meroe

Sudan

Emirates
arabs
united

Chad

Sudan

South

Ethiopia

Egypt

Arabia
Arabia

Russia

Iran

Ukraine

Kenya

Central African Republic

Uganda

Libya

Algeria

Türkiye

Qatar

Eritrea

Red Sea

Darfur

Mohammed Hamdan Daglo

“Hemetti”

Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, known as “Hemetti”, heads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)a paramilitary unit responsible for bloody abuses. He made his fortune from gold mining the country’s first resource, which it sells on the Dubai market with the blessing of the United Arab Emirates. The latter used the “Hemetti” militias in the war in Yemen, within the coalition created by Saudi Arabia in 2015. First allies during the 2021 coup d’état, “Hemetti” and Al-Bourhane have been engaged in a fratricidal war since April 2023.

United Arab Emirates

Create networks and expand influence in Africa

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a long-standing relationship with “Hemetti” and has provided the RSF with a considerable logistical advantage in the battle for Darfur and the rest of the country, transporting weapons and drones under the cover of Red Crescent activities, from Chad and other neighboring states. Abu Dhabi officially denies any interference.

Arable land purchased by the UAE

Field hospital equipped and supplied by the UAE

UAE infrastructure project to build a commercial port on the Red Sea and exploit an agricultural zone

Chad

Strengthen the N’Djamena-Abu Dhabi axis

General Al-Bourhane accuses Chad of having allied with the United Arab Emirates, themselves accused of supporting the FSR of General “Hemetti”. Until recently, a ballet of cargo planes linked Abu Dhabi to a rear base in eastern Chad. N’Djamena denies any involvement in the Sudanese conflict.

Russia

Defending mining interests

While Moscow maintains historic diplomatic relations with the Sudanese army, Russian paramilitaries collaborated with the “Hemetti” militias at the start of the war to protect the gold mines they control, mainly in Darfur, and carry out operations of contraband.

Other relays on which “Hemetti” can count
thanks to Emirati influence in the area: Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia

Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman

Al-Bourhane

At the head of the regular army (Sudanese Armed Forces, SAF)Abdel Fattah Al-Bourhane has been the de facto head of state since the military coup of October 2021. Despite the brutal repression exercised by the FAS against demonstrators, the general is notably supported by the junta in power in the neighboring Egypt. To gain legitimacy internally, he seeks support from Sudanese Islamists.

Egypt

Maintain a military ally

At the helm of the country since the military coup of 2013, Marshal Al-Sissi considers General Al-Bourhane as a key ally for regional stability. Both are concerned about the great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which threatens the water resources of Egypt and Sudan. Cairo provides military support, in the form of joint exercises, financial and humanitarian support.

Presence of the Egyptian army at Meroe air base until April 2023

Renaissance Dam

Saudi Arabia

Act as a mediator

If Riyadh seeks to establish itself as a credible peace mediator, welcoming negotiators from both camps, it has sent billions of dollars in aid and investments to the Al-Bourhane junta to maintain influence in the area. against Iran.

Russia

Access the Red Sea

At the start of the war, Russia used its influence on both sides, but more recently it has approached Al-Burhan to obtain a promise to establish a naval base in the Red Sea, whose coasts are today controlled by the FAS.

Naval base

Russian gold processing plant

Gold exploration concession granted in June 2024 to Russia

Iran

Expanding its regional influence in a context of tensions in the Red Sea

The Islamic Republic supplies weapons and drones to the SAF. Khartoum and Tehran restored their diplomatic relations in October 2023, seven years after the attacks carried out by Iranian demonstrators against the Saudi embassy and consulate in Iran. Tehran has opened an embassy in Port Sudan and hopes to consolidate its influence on a strategic Red Sea coast.

Ukraine

Expanding the scope of the war against Russia

To respond to the presence of Russian paramilitaries on Sudanese soil, kyiv deployed a few dozen special forces in Karthoum alongside the FAS in September 2023, while President Zelensky met General Al-Bourhane in Ireland. The presence in Khartoum of elements of Ukrainian military intelligence was confirmed a few months later.

Other political or military support: Libya, Türkiye, Qatar, Algeria, Eritrea

Intensity of fighting since April 15, 2023

Forces present

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

Rebel forces

Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements, coalition composed of various groups from the Darfur region, having declared war on the RSF in April 2024

Main gold mining fields

Gold smuggling route

Pipeline crossing the country from South Sudan

Other proposed commercial ports and foreign military installations

Infographic The World

Sources: Sudan War Monitor; Thomas van Linge; Acled; UNHCR; Land Matrix; Amnesty International; The World

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