In the long-distance duel between Chancellor Scholz and CDU leader Merz, there are astonishing similarities: Both blame the traffic light coalition for the rise of the AfD. However, Scholz is only referring to the dispute within his coalition – Merz is referring to their policies.
The last direct public dispute between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz was not that long ago: it was at the beginning of July, when the Union parliamentary group leader offered to work with the Chancellor. After that, there was a half-hour meeting in the Chancellery. But as far as we know, that had no consequences.
The differences between the two, both politically and personally, are probably too serious. It is all the more surprising that today’s exchange of blows revealed a whole series of similarities. It was only an indirect encounter: Scholz was on ARD for a summer interview, Merz on ZDF.
Who is to blame for the rise of the AfD?
There was one thing they had in common: Merz blamed the traffic light coalition for the rise of the AfD – and Scholz did the same. With a view to the poor poll ratings of the traffic light parties, the Chancellor made it clear in a short round of audience questions following the actual summer interview: The policy was right, the performance was bad. Scholz said that the coalition had made “an incredible number of decisions” that served “to ensure that we can look to the future with confidence”. Above the “gun smoke” one cannot see “what has been decided”.
Merz also sees the traffic light coalition as a key reason for the AfD’s strong performance in the European elections in East Germany – although the CDU leader is referring primarily to their policies, not just the dispute. Merz stressed that he travels a lot in the East and talks to people there about unresolved problems: in refugee policy and integration, the labor market and schools. They want to find answers to these problems and use them to promote the three East German state elections in September.
Merz: We can make it to number 1
With a view to these state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, Merz called for support from the other democratic parties and their supporters. “We can be in first place in the East.” But that also means that the parties in the political center must agree to “vote for the CDU in the first round of voting.”
The CDU has won all local runoff elections in Thuringia without exception. “That shows the strength of the CDU. Provided that others are prepared to join in such elections.” Especially in Thuringia and Saxony, where the SPD, Greens and FDP are in single figures and may remain below the five percent hurdle, he can only ask voters to vote for the CDU.
Unity at BSW
Both Scholz and Merz said that the question of cooperation with the BSW would be decided in the states. The SPD’s position is that such questions are decided locally, said Scholz. However, the SPD agrees that the AfD is not an acceptable partner. “And there are also decisions to be made locally.” Scholz ruled out cooperation with the BSW at the federal level as inconceivable.
Merz did something similar. He ruled out cooperation with the BSW at the federal level. He spoke of a “one-person party” that was “extremely left-wing” in many areas, while on issues such as immigration and integration it “took a tone that we actually only hear from the AfD”. In the states, the state parties had to decide what “happens now in the fall after these very difficult state elections”. There had “always” been a consensus on this in the CDU.
However, Merz sounded very different just two weeks ago. He said that the BSW was “right-wing extremist on some issues, and left-wing extremist on others.” At that time he ruled out any cooperation with the BSW. After criticism from the states, he then corrected himself.
A similar scenario occurred last year. In a summer interview with ZDF, Merz briefly revoked his party’s decision to distance itself from the AfD at the local level – only to later explain that he had not meant it that way. The result was an agitated discussion in the Union with unclear signals to voters and supporters. That is unlikely to happen this time.
“There is something going on”
This year, Scholz is more likely to be under fire. When asked about a survey from Thuringia in which the AfD received 28 percent, the CDU 23 percent and the Sahra Wagenknecht coalition 21 percent, but the SPD only 7 percent, the Chancellor said: “Something is going on and I think we can’t beat around the bush.” A key issue in East Germany is support for Ukraine. “But in my view, there is no alternative to changing that now,” stressed Scholz. Russia has attacked Ukraine, and this is “a classic war of conquest.” In order to prevent such an approach from being successful, Ukraine must continue to be supported.
It seemed as if Scholz felt he was being treated unfairly. Scholz said he was a bit irritated, because in the past two years he had only been asked whether he was being too hesitant. “I have always advocated prudence and that we use all options to make a peaceful development possible that does not mean a capitulation of Ukraine. And I continue to stand by that.”
Merz, in turn, criticized the Chancellor’s attitude toward Ukraine as being too hesitant. The federal government acted too late and did too little when it came to aiding Ukraine. “We should have done more at the beginning,” said the CDU leader. Now we must look to create “opportunities” to end this conflict at some point.
However, the Union has found its own way of addressing East Germans’ dissatisfaction with the Ukraine policy of the traffic light coalition: it is now demanding that Ukrainian refugees no longer be paid citizen’s allowance, although the European comparative figures do not suggest that citizen’s allowance is the main reason why Ukrainians work less frequently in Germany than in other European countries. CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt is now even calling for the deportation of unemployed Ukrainians – a proposal that would not be legally feasible because it contradicts the EU’s so-called mass influx directive.
Scholz does not see himself as a burden for the SPD
The Chancellor made it clear that, despite poor poll ratings, he does not see himself as a burden for his party. He stressed that “all relevant leaders in the SPD” have made it clear that they want to “move forward together”, meaning that no one of importance is questioning him as the next candidate for chancellor. The SPD is needed. “And it is our job to ensure and fight for better election results.”
Merz sees things completely differently. When asked about his lack of government experience, the CDU leader said he suspects “that the majority of the population in Germany is now pretty fed up with the government experience of this federal government.”