In 2023, several large operators connectivity constellations in low orbit have completed the launch of their first generation into orbit. Beyond the controversies over their use or the size of the orbits, it is a commercial success. There second generation is already happening, with new attentive players.
It hasn’t been quite 9 years since the first “superconstellations” from SpaceX and OneWeb were announced. In the meantime, Starlink has more than 5,000 satellites sent into low orbit, and OneWeb 636. Both completed the meshing of their service in 2023… at least for their first generation!
SpaceX, which succeeded in its technical and commercial challenge, immediately followed up with an improvement, while OneWeb is preparing its technical solution. Other commercial operators, led by Amazon, are in the starting blocks… What will the future look like?
At SpaceX, continuous improvement
It was once a question for SpaceX to take a break between the first generation of Starlink satellites and the next, which was to be sent into orbit thanks to the enormous capabilities of the Starship. The latter not being there, and as there were some hiccups in the deployment of the first mesh (units lost due to a solar storm, some on-board computer problems, a firing rate which took time to climb from the California coast), Elon Musk’s company immediately began its transition.
In reality, the ground antennas are compatible, although they too will gradually be replaced. At the end of November 2023, SpaceX has already unveiled its new antenna dedicated to residential subscriptions (it is larger). And, as not all the feedback is unanimous despite more than two million subscriptions and contracts with many major players (notably cruise lines and airlines), we must continue to improve the service.
Thus, Starlink, which already has the advantage of generating substantial revenues (between 2.5 and 5 billion dollars this year), is beyond breakeven and is producing profits according to SpaceX officials, who do not give however no details… while indicating to expect 10 billion dollars in revenue next year. Enough to support growth in the constellation and the gradual replacement of the first units by a new generation, even if it is “only” the satellites nicknamed “V2 mini”.
797 units have been sent into orbit since last April-May (first V2 mini firing in February), and the pace is expected to accelerate, as SpaceX has already planned up to 13,000 of these satellites in low orbit. In addition to a larger number of transponders, these satellites have laser data links between its units, which improves throughputs and reduces the need for ground stations. Feedback from the first generation was also taken into account for the manufacture of satellites and antennas.
OneWeb is preparing its 2nd generation (and eyeing Europe)
Officially purchased this year by the French giant Eutelsat, OneWeb is taking a break from launching new satellites, its constellation being officially complete. Which does not prevent us from preparing for the future. In May, a next-generation test satellite was sent into low orbit to test several key technologies that will be implemented to improve the service.
OneWeb does not compete with Starlink in all of its markets and is not aimed directly at end users, but more at businesses and connectivity operators around the world. It will therefore take more time to secure contracts and make the first phase profitable before signing the second. Especially since OneWeb intends to play on its largely (but not 100%) European identity by offering its services to the EU, which is taking time to decide on the future of its state constellation IRIS².
Regardless, the 2nd generation will have fewer, more capable satellites. OneWeb will, in fact, use the capabilities of Eutelsat’s geostationary constellation as relays, which should limit both the need for satellites and ground stations.
Amazon tested its first satellites
In total secrecy about their size, mass and capabilities, the first two satellites of the Kuiper constellation have carried out their first tests in recent weeks. Sent into orbit last September, these two test units are above all prototypes: they validated the communication protocols with the ground, which makes it possible to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the planned equipment (remember that Amazon had unveiled antennas at the beginning of the year). For the 3,236 satellites of the first complete phase of the constellation, we will have to wait: the first takeoffs will not take place until mid-2024 at best, or even later. The factory that will assemble the satellites is still under construction on the Space Coast…
Amazon will be a player in the “2nd wave” for superconstellations, but is not giving up. There are indeed places to take behind SpaceX, and many operators wish to keep their place without necessarily going through Elon Musk’s firm. Thus the Japanese operator Sky Perfect JSAT has just signed an agreement with Amazon for the distribution and use of Kuiper… And even access during the beta phase. Other operators, however, like Boeing, have thrown in the towel. The latter, like Telesat, have revised their objectives downwards.
Finally, let’s not forget China, even if it primarily targets the Chinese market. The most prominent constellation there is called Guowang and it too has early units that have been tested in Earth orbit (the Hulianwang Jishu Shiyan), but none with several hundred satellites to date. Other tests took place in 2023, with the Longjiang-3 satellite from the University of Harbin, which would also be a “Starlink-style” prototype… Finally, note that there are several Chinese national constellations in deployment or planned for the Internet of Things (IoT).
Wild west and debris clouds? Not really
When the three-digit satellite numbers were announced, some observers sounded the alarm about the lack of regulations, the growing risks of collision and the space pollution that the new giants would cause. If their impact is certain on deep sky observations (the reports are numerous, even if the astronomers are in contact with the operators), it is clear that the apocalypse did not take place. Starlink satellites, for example, are agile enough to automatically maneuver when the risk of a collision appears, even when it represents only a few fractions of a percentage probability of impact.
The management of superconstellations seems sufficiently reasoned today, with rapid atmospheric returns and destruction in a few months, and agencies which monitor and request numerous data from satellite operators. This management should also be tightened further since more restrictive regulations (particularly in the United States) are and will come into force. Which does not, of course, prevent the risk of collision.
Source : Universe Today
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